Ukraine's 400km² Gains Show Putin's War Isn't Going to Plan

400 square kilometers. That's how much territory Ukraine has reclaimed in the south since late January. It might sound modest, but consider this: over three years, Russia has managed to seize just 1.5 percent of Ukraine's total territory at the cost of hundreds of thousands of lives.

What Vladimir Putin promised would be a three-day operation has stretched into its fourth year, with Ukraine now striking Russian missile factories 1,200 kilometers from its border. The war that was supposed to showcase Russian military might has instead revealed its profound limitations.

The Tide Begins to Turn

Volodymyr Zelensky marked the fourth anniversary of Russia's invasion with cautious optimism. "You can't say that we're losing the war," he told reporters, as his military chief Oleksandr Syrskii announced the 400 square kilometer territorial gains in southern Ukraine.

These victories weren't just about superior tactics. Ukraine convinced Starlink to disconnect illegal Russian terminals, while the Kremlin itself partly disabled the Telegram messaging service that Russian troops relied on for military communications. Sometimes the enemy's own actions become your advantage.

The Institute for the Study of War suggests these limited counterattacks may have disrupted Russian preparations for a spring offensive. Even small gains can have outsized strategic effects when they force your opponent to recalculate.

Consider the battle for Pokrovsk, a city with a pre-war population of 60,000. Russia finally captured it after a two-year campaign, but by then, Ukrainian strikes had long since neutralized its value as a logistics hub. Victory, but at what cost and to what end?

The Sky War Intensifies

While ground battles grab headlines, the aerial campaign reveals the war's true nature. Last week alone, Russia launched over 1,500 drones and at least 90 missiles at Ukrainian cities. Yet Ukraine's air defenses have dramatically improved.

On Thursday, Russia unleashed 420 drones and 39 missiles in a massive barrage. Ukraine neutralized 90 percent of the drones and 30 missiles. "We indeed managed to protect very important facilities," Zelensky said, as Kyiv's lights stayed on.

Here's what's remarkable: Russia is using its entire production capacity. Ukrainian defense adviser Serhiy Beskrestnov noted that "all the ballistics that come to us are made at the end of 2025 – the beginning of 2026. We are actually being attacked with missiles from the factory."

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Russia is essentially fighting with one hand tied behind its back – it can only attack with what it can produce, while Ukraine's defensive capabilities keep improving.

Striking the Source

Ukraine's most significant achievement may be its ability to hit Russian weapons production directly. On February 21, Ukrainian-made FP-5 "Flamingo" missiles struck the Votkinsk missile factory in Russia's Udmurtia region – 1,200 kilometers from the Ukrainian border.

Missile expert Fabian Hoffman called it "the first time that Ukraine has successfully struck a core target of Russia's missile industry directly using a heavy missile capability." The factory produces Russia's "unstoppable" Oreshnik intermediate ballistic missile, which Putin has repeatedly used to threaten Europe.

The Flamingo carries Ukraine's largest warhead to date – 1,150 kilograms – but has struggled with accuracy issues. This successful strike proves Ukraine can now reach deep into Russian territory with precision.

That same week, Ukrainian drones hit gas processing plants in Samara, oil pumping stations in Tatarstan, and chemical plants in Smolensk. Ukraine isn't just defending anymore – it's taking the war to Russia's industrial heartland.

Europe Doubles Down

Ursula von der Leyen and Antonio Costa, the EU's top leaders, stood beside Zelensky in Kyiv on the anniversary. Their message was clear: Europe isn't backing down.

The EU has become Ukraine's biggest supporter, sending €195 billion ($230 billion) to date and voting to provide another €90 billion ($106 billion) over the next two years. "Europe has stood with us throughout these difficult, really difficult years, and our people trust Europe," Zelensky said.

This isn't just about money – it's about a fundamental choice between two visions of Europe's future.

The Economics of Endless War

Russia occupies 20 percent of Ukraine's territory, but the front lines barely move. Putin's "second army in the world" has been reduced to targeting apartment buildings and power plants, while Ukraine produces three million first-person view drones annually.

The war has become a contest of industrial capacity and international support. Russia burns through its weapons stockpiles attacking civilian infrastructure, while Ukraine builds the capability to strike back at the source.