Traders Made $1M+ Insider Trading on a Market About... Insider Trading

A $0.14 bet became $411,000 in profit. On a market designed to catch insider trading.

Blockchain sleuth ZachXBT named Axiom, a crypto trading platform, as his target Thursday morning after days of teasing an insider trading investigation. Polymarket had created a betting market on which company would be named, drawing roughly $40 million in volume.

The problem? Someone clearly knew the answer before it dropped.

The Suspicious Winners

Lookonchain identified 12 wallets that bet heavily on Axiom before the reveal, netting over $1 million combined. A separate analysis by Polysights flagged five wallets that wagered around $50,000 and walked away with $266,000.

The biggest winner was an account called "predictorxyz." They accumulated 477,415 shares at an average price of $0.14 and are now sitting on $411,000 in profit—roughly a 7x return on insider knowledge.

The second-largest holder bought 109,450 shares at $0.33. This wasn't broad market participation. A handful of wallets dominated the Axiom side of the book.

The Tell-Tale Timing

For most of the week, Meteora had been the frontrunner at over 50% odds. Then Axiom's odds suddenly swung to 46.2% late Wednesday—before any public information changed.

ZachXBT acknowledged on social media that he had contacted Axiom for comment and conducted interviews before publishing, making a leak "probably inevitable." Multiple people at the company knew the report was coming.

Any of them could have placed bets directly or tipped someone who did. Polymarket's offshore platform doesn't require identity checks, making attribution nearly impossible without exchange cooperation.

The Perfect Irony

Axiom said it was "shocked and disappointed" by the findings and would investigate. It didn't respond to questions about employee betting on the Polymarket wager.

The structural irony is perfect: the prediction market worked exactly as designed. It just happened to reward the people who were the subject of the investigation rather than those conducting it.