Why Pakistan Just Declared 'Open War' on Afghanistan

Pakistan just bombed Kabul and declared "open war" on Afghanistan. Two neighbors who share 2,600 kilometers of porous border have crossed a dangerous line.

What Triggered This Escalation

Pakistani forces launched airstrikes on the Afghan capital following what Islamabad calls a series of cross-border terrorist attacks. Pakistan's military claims Afghan soil is being used as a launching pad for attacks against Pakistani targets, with over 600 incidents recorded last year alone.

The immediate trigger appears to be recent clashes in border regions where Pakistani forces say they've been targeted by militants operating from Afghan territory. Pakistan's government argues that Afghanistan's Taliban rulers are either unwilling or unable to prevent these attacks.

Afghanistan's Taliban government fired back, calling Pakistan's strikes a "violation of sovereignty" and threatening retaliation. A Taliban spokesperson warned that "Pakistan's unilateral attacks are unacceptable" and promised "appropriate responses."

The Taliban's Impossible Position

Afghanistan's Taliban government faces a complex dilemma. They've repeatedly promised that Afghan territory won't be used for attacks against other countries - a key condition for international recognition and aid.

Yet controlling the entire country, especially remote border regions, remains challenging even for the Taliban. Various militant groups, including the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), operate in areas where central authority is weak.

The Taliban also can't afford to appear weak domestically. Being seen as capitulating to Pakistani demands could undermine their legitimacy among supporters who expect them to defend Afghan sovereignty.

Pakistan's Domestic Calculations

For Pakistan, military action serves multiple purposes beyond counterterrorism. The country faces severe economic challenges and political instability - external threats can help rally domestic support.

Pakistan's military establishment has long viewed Afghanistan through a security lens, seeing friendly relations with Afghan rulers as essential for strategic depth against India. The current Taliban government's inability to control militant groups threatens this calculation.

But escalation carries risks. Pakistan can't afford a prolonged conflict given its $350 billion debt crisis and dependence on international bailouts.

Regional Powers Watch Nervously

China has the most at stake economically. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), worth over $60 billion, runs through regions affected by the instability. Beijing has called for restraint while quietly pressuring both sides.

Iran, sharing borders with both countries, fears spillover effects. Tehran has its own militant challenges and doesn't want additional instability on its eastern borders.

The United States, despite its 2021 withdrawal from Afghanistan, maintains counterterrorism interests in the region. Washington faces the awkward position of supporting Pakistan while avoiding legitimizing the Taliban.

The Economic Reality Check

Both countries can ill afford prolonged conflict. Pakistan's economy teeters on the edge of default, with inflation above 25% and foreign reserves critically low.

Afghanistan faces even worse conditions. International sanctions and aid cuts since the Taliban's return have pushed 90% of the population into poverty. Border closures with Pakistan would devastate trade and worsen humanitarian conditions.

The human cost extends beyond economics. Millions of Afghans live as refugees in Pakistan, while cross-border families face separation if tensions escalate further.