Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire: A Deal Full of Gaps

Five minutes. That's how much notice Israel's security cabinet reportedly got before Benjamin Netanyahu announced a ceasefire with Lebanon to the world.

No vote was held. No deliberation on record. And the group actually doing the fighting — Hezbollah — wasn't at the negotiating table at all.

That's the ceasefire that took effect at midnight Beirut time on April 16.

What Was Agreed — and What Wasn't

Donald Trump announced the deal, calling it a "gesture of goodwill" from Israel and an opening for a "historic peace agreement." The ceasefire is set to last 10 days, with the possibility of extension "by mutual agreement" if talks show progress. Trump has since invited both Netanyahu and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun to the White House.

The terms, as outlined by the US State Department, are worth reading carefully. Israel retains the right to take "all necessary measures in self-defence, at any time." Lebanon must take "meaningful steps" to prevent Hezbollah and other armed groups from attacking Israeli targets. Lebanon's security forces are recognized as having exclusive responsibility for the country's security. And both sides have asked the US to keep facilitating direct talks.

What's conspicuously absent: any mention of Hezbollah in the formal agreement. Trump later took to Truth Social to urge the group to "act nicely and well during this important period of time" — a phrase that reads less like diplomacy and more like a hopeful request.

Hezbollah, for its part, signaled a conditional willingness to participate — but demanded a "comprehensive halt to attacks" across Lebanon and no freedom of movement for Israeli forces. Netanyahu rejected both conditions outright. He made clear that Israeli troops would maintain a 10km-deep security zone in southern Lebanon. "We are there," he said, "and we are not leaving."

The Weight of Six Weeks

To understand why this ceasefire matters — fragile as it is — consider what's happened since March 2.

Sponsored

Advertise with Us

[email protected]

Sponsored

Israel's attacks on Lebanon have killed more than 2,100 people and wounded 7,000 others, according to Lebanon's health ministry, which does not distinguish between combatants and civilians. Among the dead: at least 260 women and 172 children. 91 health workers have been killed. More than 120 attacks on ambulances and medical facilities have been recorded. BBC Verify analysis found over 1,400 buildings destroyed.

On the other side, Hezbollah attacks have killed 2 Israeli civilians and 13 Israeli soldiers in combat over the same period.

The day before the ceasefire was announced, the Israeli military destroyed the last bridge connecting southern Lebanon to the rest of the country — deepening fears of a prolonged, or even permanent, occupation of the region.

Why Now, and Why So Rushed

The timing isn't accidental. This ceasefire is entangled with a separate, parallel diplomatic track: a two-week US-Iran ceasefire negotiated with Pakistani assistance. When that deal was announced, there was immediate confusion over whether Lebanon was included. Iranian and Pakistani officials said yes. The US and Israel said no.

This new agreement appears, in part, to resolve that ambiguity — while keeping the Lebanon file firmly in American hands.

But the rushed process raises questions about durability. A previous ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah — ending 13 months of conflict — still saw near-daily cross-border strikes before this latest round of fighting erupted in March. The pattern is familiar: agreements announced, violations accumulate, war resumes.

The structural problem hasn't changed. Hezbollah is deeply embedded in Lebanese society, commands significant military capability, and operates independently of the Lebanese government's security apparatus. Reaching a deal with Beirut without Hezbollah's genuine buy-in is a bit like negotiating a noise ordinance with the landlord while the tenant keeps the speakers.

How the World Is Reading This

The international response has been carefully calibrated. UN Secretary-General António Guterres praised US facilitation and urged all parties to respect international law — a formulation that implicitly covers Israeli conduct in Lebanon as much as Hezbollah's. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called the deal a "relief" and reaffirmed Europe's commitment to Lebanon's sovereignty. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas urged the ceasefire to create space for "a more lasting peace."

Iran's foreign ministry welcomed the ceasefire while expressing "solidarity" with Lebanon — a signal that Tehran sees this as a partial win, not a capitulation.

For ordinary Lebanese, the reaction is more visceral. Displaced families hope to return home. But with Israeli troops dug into a buffer zone, the last southern bridge gone, and Hezbollah's status in the agreement undefined, the path back to normalcy is anything but clear.

For investors and markets, the ceasefire introduces a narrow window of reduced risk in a region that has kept energy markets on edge. Oil prices and shipping routes through the Eastern Mediterranean have been sensitive to every escalation. A stable 10-day window — if it holds — could ease some of that pressure. But the structural uncertainty remains priced in.