Japan Foreign Visitors Forecast 2026: A 3% Drop as China Tensions Rise
JTB predicts a 3% decline in Japan foreign visitors forecast for 2026, totaling 41.4 million. Rising tensions with China are cited as the primary reason.
Japan's tourism boom is hitting a diplomatic wall. For the first time in years, the number of overseas travelers is expected to shrink, signaling a potential cooling of one of the world's hottest travel markets.
Japan Foreign Visitors Forecast 2026: The JTB Outlook
According to a report released Thursday by JTB, Japan's largest travel agency, the number of foreign tourists is projected to fall by 3% in 2026 compared to last year. The agency estimates that 41.4 million people will visit the country, down from previous record-breaking highs.
Geopolitical Strains Dampen Travel Demand
The primary drag on the forecast is the frayed relationship between Tokyo and Beijing. The Chinese government has explicitly called on its citizens to avoid traveling to Japan. This diplomatic friction is already showing up in the data: hotel bookings from China for the upcoming Lunar New Year have slowed to a mere 3% growth rate, while negotiations for new visa arrangements remain stalled.
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