Israel's Iranian Victory: The Mirage of Total Triumph

Can military success translate into lasting peace? As Israel and the United States launched their joint operation against Iran last Saturday, achieving what many consider unprecedented success—including the elimination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—this question has never been more pressing.

Netanyahu's Perfect Storm

For Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the timing couldn't be better. Just months ago, he faced a political perfect storm: growing calls for accountability over the October 7, 2023 intelligence failures, an ongoing corruption trial, and polls suggesting his coalition would lose parliamentary seats in the upcoming election.

Now, Netanyahu can claim he killed Khamenei and "changed the Middle East forever." It's the ultimate vindication of a three-decade political career built around the Iranian threat. His 2012 UN speech, where he held up a cartoon bomb warning that Iran was 90 percent of the way to nuclear breakout, suddenly looks prophetic rather than theatrical.

The Israeli government has masterfully reframed all military operations since October 7 as a triumphal "war of redemption" culminating in Iran's defeat. Hamas's assault becomes merely the opening chapter of a larger heroic tale, conveniently obscuring the still-elusive victory in Gaza.

The Weight of Expectations

For Israelis, Iran represented the ultimate existential threat—a theocracy that has persistently called for their country's destruction while building thousands of missiles and cultivating a "ring of fire" of proxy militias. Since 2000, Tehran and its proxies have killed at least 3,500 Israelis through the second intifada, the 2006 Lebanon war, the October 7 massacre, and indirect conflicts.

The financial support was staggering: the US Treasury announced that Tehran smuggled at least $1 billion to Hezbollah alone in the first 10 months of 2025. Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, who designed the October 7 attacks, acknowledged in intercepted communications that "Iran provides us with everything we need to continue the struggle."

This week's polls by the Institute for National Security Studies and the Israel Democracy Institute reveal that a majority of Israeli respondents want the war to continue until the Iranian regime is overthrown. Notably, fewer Israelis feared an escalatory spiral than during last June's 12-day war—reflecting a longing for true victory.

The Familiar Echo of Victory

Yet the euphoria feels hauntingly familiar. Just eight months ago, after the so-called 12-day war badly damaged Iranian nuclear facilities and decimated the country's air defenses, Netanyahu declared: "We have removed the Iranian sword hanging over our heads." Last Saturday, his language was nearly identical: "The Iranian regime's ability to threaten Israel has been permanently degraded."

The economic costs are mounting. The 2026 defense budget is projected to consume 4.5 to 6.5 percent of GDP. Tourism has collapsed by 60 percent since October 2023; the budget deficit is rising to nearly four percent of GDP. In January, the Bank of Israel warned of coming labor shortages, inflation, and a brain drain of tech workers.

The Mowing the Grass Trap

Israel's challenge remains its tendency toward "mowing the grass" strategies—temporary fixes that keep the country mired in constant neighborhood conflicts. Whenever Israel addresses one security problem, it seems to create another. The domestic problems this war serves as a distraction from—Netanyahu's corruption trial, the October 7 security lapses, mounting violent crime, and high road fatality rates—won't disappear with Iranian regime change.

The election is likely to come soon enough for Netanyahu to leverage the war to consolidate his position, regardless of long-term consequences. But Israelis who hope this war will foreclose future conflict and lead to normalization with the wider Arab world could end up bitterly disappointed.