Germany's Blueprint for Surviving the Return of Great-Power Politics

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz recently delivered a stark assessment of our times: Europe has ended its long "vacation from history."

Borrowing from philosopher Peter Sloterdijk, this wasn't mere rhetoric. It was a cold recognition that by 2026, the world has crossed into what Merz calls "a gloomier era" dominated by power flexing and great-power competition.

The End of the Rules-Based Order

Merz's diagnosis is unforgiving. America's claim to global leadership is being challenged, "perhaps even squandered." The international order based on rights and rules "no longer exists."

Russia's brutal war in Ukraine represents the most obvious manifestation of this shift. But it's not alone. China has spent decades laying foundations for global influence with "strategic patience," systematically cultivating dependencies and reinterpreting international norms. Its military could soon rival America's.

What makes this era particularly dangerous, according to Merz, is that great-power politics offers "straightforward, simple answers" to complex problems—at least for the great powers themselves. These politics are "fast, tough, and unpredictable." They're also zero-sum, exploiting dependencies rather than building mutual prosperity.

Germany's Strategic Awakening

For a country that has spent decades relying on "normative power"—warning, expressing concern, and reprimanding violations of international order—this represents a fundamental shift. Merz acknowledges that Germany "often lacked the means to remedy" the situations it criticized.

"The gap between German aspirations and German capabilities widened too far," he admits. "The time has come to close it."

The numbers tell the story. Russia's GDP amounts to around $2.5 trillion. The European Union's is almost ten times higher. "And yet Europe today is not ten times stronger than Russia," Merz observes.

To change this, Germany is embarking on what amounts to a strategic revolution. At the NATO summit in The Hague in June 2025, all allies committed to investing five percent of GDP in security. Germany amended its constitution to enable this massive defense spending.

Europe's New Security Architecture

The practical implications are already visible. In 2025, after the United States drastically reduced its Ukraine support, European NATO allies and Canada provided roughly $40 billion in security assistance. Germany led this effort and has increased its support further in 2026.

But this isn't just about Ukraine. Germany is "breathing new life into its defense industry" with massive procurement projects in air defense, precision strikes, and satellite technology. New factories are opening, new jobs being created. The goal: making the Bundeswehr "the strongest conventional army in Europe."

The broader European project is also evolving. Merz wants to activate Article 42.7 of the EU Treaty, which commits members to mutual assistance in case of armed attack. This wouldn't replace NATO but would create "a self-sustaining, strong pillar" within the alliance.

The Democracy vs. Efficiency Dilemma

Perhaps most intriguingly, Merz acknowledges that democratic states are "reaching the limits of their capacity to act," creating "a longing for strong leadership." This touches on one of the central tensions of our time: Can democratic systems compete effectively with authoritarian regimes that can act swiftly and decisively?

Germany's answer seems to be: Yes, but only through collective action and strategic focus. Merz calls for curbing "the proliferation of European bureaucracy and regulation," ensuring that Europe's standards "fuel innovation and entrepreneurship" rather than immobilize it in global competition.

The Stakes for Global Stability

What makes Merz's analysis particularly compelling is his recognition that this isn't just about Europe. The shift to great-power politics reflects deeper technological and social upheavals. As he notes, "new technologies are driving revolutionary change" while societies grapple with internal turmoil.

The implications extend far beyond Europe's borders. If the EU—the world's largest economic bloc—adopts a more assertive, power-focused approach, it will fundamentally alter global dynamics. Trade relationships, technological standards, and security arrangements will all be affected.

For businesses, this means supply chains and dependencies that once seemed purely economic are now strategic vulnerabilities. For smaller nations, it raises questions about how to maintain autonomy in an increasingly polarized world.