Gaza War's 15-Month Questions That Still Have No Answers

Fifteen months. That's how long the war in Gaza has raged since Hamas's surprise attack triggered what many consider the most significant Middle East crisis in decades. But as the conflict grinds on, it's not the military developments that define this moment—it's the questions that nobody seems able to answer.

Al Jazeera's recent programming lineup reads like a catalog of the world's most pressing dilemmas: "Is genocide still happening in Gaza?" "What's the fallout from Israel's land grab?" "Is ISIL on the verge of becoming a regional threat once again?" These aren't just headlines—they're the fundamental questions that will shape Middle Eastern geopolitics for years to come.

The Genocide Debate: Legal Definitions vs. Ground Reality

Perhaps no question cuts deeper than whether what's happening in Gaza constitutes genocide. The International Court of Justice has already ordered Israel to prevent genocidal acts, but the gap between legal definitions and battlefield realities remains vast.

Israel maintains its operations target Hamas infrastructure with clear military objectives, arguing that civilian casualties are unintended consequences of urban warfare. Palestinian authorities and human rights groups counter that the scale and nature of the destruction—entire neighborhoods flattened, medical facilities targeted, humanitarian aid blocked—suggests something more systematic.

The stakes of this definitional debate extend far beyond legal semantics. How the international community labels these events will determine everything from war crimes prosecutions to future diplomatic relationships. The US and EU continue their delicate balancing act, acknowledging Israel's right to self-defense while calling for civilian protection—a position that satisfies neither side.

Territorial Expansion: The Domino Effect

Israel's expanding settlements in the West Bank and establishment of military positions in Gaza represent another dimension of the crisis. This isn't just about Palestinian-Israeli relations—it's about whether international law still matters in an era of great power competition.

The settlement expansion, accelerating since October 7th, creates facts on the ground that may prove irreversible. Israeli officials frame these moves as security necessities, but Palestinian leaders and Arab states see a systematic land grab designed to preclude any future Palestinian state.

The broader implications are chilling. As Russia annexes Ukrainian territory and China asserts claims in the South China Sea, Israel's actions risk normalizing might-makes-right geopolitics. The message to smaller nations is clear: international borders are only as secure as the military force protecting them.

The ISIS Wild Card

Amid the focus on Gaza, another threat is quietly metastasizing. Islamic State remnants are reportedly regrouping across Syria and Iraq, exploiting the security vacuum created by diverted international attention.

US and coalition forces, stretched thin and politically constrained, have reduced counter-terrorism operations just as ISIS cells show renewed activity. The group's propaganda increasingly links their cause to the Gaza conflict, using civilian casualties to recruit new fighters and justify attacks against Western targets.

Intelligence reports from northeastern Syria and western Iraq suggest ISIS is rebuilding command structures and planning larger operations. The timing isn't coincidental—the group thrives in chaos, and the Middle East hasn't been this unstable since their initial rise in 2014.

UN Security Council: Reform or Irrelevance?

Underlying all these crises is the UN Security Council's structural paralysis. The US has vetoed multiple resolutions calling for Gaza ceasefires, while Russia and China block measures they view as Western-biased. The result? An international system that can't respond to its biggest challenges.

Calls for Security Council reform have intensified, with Brazil, India, and Germany pushing for expanded permanent membership. But the current P5 nations show little appetite for diluting their power, even as their credibility erodes with each failed intervention.

The irony is stark: the body designed to maintain international peace and security has become a forum for great power competition, leaving smaller nations and vulnerable populations to fend for themselves.

The Humanitarian Catastrophe

While diplomats debate definitions and politicians posture, the human cost continues mounting. Of Gaza's 2.3 million residents, most are now internally displaced, living in conditions that aid workers describe as medieval.

More than 80% of Gaza's hospitals are non-functional, while schools serving as shelters face overcrowding that breeds disease. Even UNRWA, the UN agency for Palestinian refugees, faces funding cuts after Israeli allegations of staff involvement with Hamas—charges that remain unproven but have already damaged relief operations.

The international response reveals uncomfortable truths about humanitarian priorities. Billions flow to Ukraine's defense, but Gaza's reconstruction remains an afterthought. The message is clear: some victims matter more than others.

Regional Realignment

Perhaps most significantly, the Gaza war is reshaping Middle Eastern alliances in ways that may outlast the conflict itself. Saudi Arabia's normalization talks with Israel have stalled indefinitely, while Iran strengthens ties with resistance groups across the region.

Turkey has emerged as a vocal critic of Israeli actions, potentially complicating its NATO membership and relationships with Western allies. Meanwhile, Egypt and Jordan face domestic pressure over their peace treaties with Israel, even as they quietly coordinate on containing the conflict.

These shifting dynamics suggest the post-war Middle East will look fundamentally different from the region that existed on October 6, 2023. The question is whether these changes will promote stability or fuel further conflict.