Hamas Reclaims Gaza vs Trump's Peace Plan Reality Check

A quiet power game is unfolding in Gaza that could determine the fate of Trump's peace plan. Four months after the ceasefire, Hamas has reasserted control over 90% of Gaza according to local activists, creating a stark reality check for Stage 2 of the peace plan that hinges on the group's disarmament.

Hamas's Silent Return

Gaza activist Mohammed Diab reports that "Hamas regained control of more than 90% of the areas where it is present." Police and security agencies have returned to the streets, controlling crime and pursuing those they label as collaborators. Citizens must now go to Hamas authorities for identity cards and health procedures.

At markets across Gaza, stallholders describe regular police patrols and renewed pressure over official fees. "Every single day they come to us aggressively," one stallholder said, speaking anonymously. "They're asking for 700 shekels ($225) – none of us can afford that." His family of 12 was displaced from Shujaiya, now "a flat wasteland of rubble."

A cigarette seller nearby added: "Let them count the stock and the sales, cigarette by cigarette, and tell me: should I pay them, or feed my children?"

Hamas has also reimposed strict control over taxing imports from Israel. One trader, speaking anonymously, described the use of force against those who refuse to pay. "The taxes start at 20,000 shekels and above," he said. "If a trader refuses to pay, force is used and in some cases he is kidnapped or threatened."

Israel's Strategic Dilemma

Israel Defense Forces (IDF) spokesman Lt Col Nadav Shoshani warns that "Hamas looks at the ceasefire as a time to regroup, to fight against us." Since the ceasefire began, four Israeli soldiers have been killed in daily attacks by Hamas, while Gaza's Health Ministry says 603 Palestinians have died in Israeli attacks.

The IDF recently released grainy footage of figures running through Gaza's debris, identified as "armed terrorists" approaching troops. But after two years of intense military conflict, Hamas's military capabilities remain intact enough to pose a continuing threat – highlighting the limits of military solutions.

"This war is not done until Hamas is disarmed," Lt Col Shoshani said. "If not, there are a lot of tools on the table to make sure that does happen."

Trump's Peace Plan Meets Reality

Stage 2 of Trump's peace plan requires Hamas disarmament, but negotiators are still working through crucial details: who would Hamas hand weapons over to, which weapons would they surrender, and how would that be verified?

Hamas spokesman Hazem Qassem told the BBC: "I believe we are capable of addressing the issue of weapons in a way that removes the Occupation's pretext to renew the war and is also compatible with President Trump's plan." However, some in the group reportedly demand to keep personal weapons for protection against domestic enemies.

Meanwhile, the International Stabilisation Force meant to take over Gaza security remains in limbo, and the Palestinian technocratic council designated to run civilian affairs waits in Egypt. Though Hamas said it was ready to "transfer authority and governance in all fields," activist Mohammed Diab reports the group carried out "large-scale appointments to vacant positions in the government sector" last week.

The Battle for Gaza's Future

Trump's new Board of Peace, comprising heads of state with stakes in Gaza's future, holds its first meeting in Washington Thursday. The plan's success depends on moving past the current impasse, but the ground reality suggests Hamas isn't preparing to fade away.

The recent reopening of the Rafah Crossing for medical evacuations revealed Hamas's intention to maintain control. Though the process was designed without the group's involvement, Hamas ministry officials showed up on the second day to help supervise – a telling sign of their determination to remain relevant.

Israel has begun clearing ground in Israeli-held areas around Rafah for a reported US plan to build housing for 200,000 Gazans, offering food, water and medical support to tempt people away from Hamas-controlled areas. Few have made the journey so far, as crossing into Israeli-held territory is seen by many as siding with the enemy.