Why Bolsonaro Is in Prison While Trump Is President

Twenty-seven years in prison versus a return to the presidency. Two former leaders who attempted coups after losing elections couldn't have more different fates.

Brazil's Jair Bolsonaro was sentenced to 27 years late last year for plotting a coup. Donald Trump is back in the White House. Both men refused to accept electoral defeat, both rallied supporters to storm their nations' capitals, and both did so in early January—Bolsonaro in 2023, Trump in 2021.

The parallels run deeper than just the timing.

The Rise of "Tropical Trump"

Bolsonaro earned his nickname "The Trump of the Tropics" for good reason. He rode populist nationalism to Brazil's presidency in 2018, displaying the same anti-democratic impulses, Twitter obsession, and ability to maintain fierce loyalty from roughly half his country.

But when both men faced electoral defeat—Bolsonaro to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in 2022, Trump to Joe Biden in 2020—their post-election paths diverged dramatically.

After losing, Bolsonaro claimed Brazil's electronic voting system was rigged. He plotted with military officials to overturn the results and encouraged supporters to storm Brasília's government buildings on January 8, 2023. The Brazilian Supreme Court moved swiftly, arresting coup plotters and indicting Bolsonaro himself.

Today, Bolsonaro is banned from running for office until 2030, faces multiple criminal trials, and has had his passport confiscated. His political career appears over.

America's Different Choice

Trump's journey took a different turn. Despite being impeached twice, facing multiple criminal indictments, and presiding over the January 6 Capitol attack, he successfully ran for president again in 2024—and won.

Vox correspondent Zack Beauchamp, who traveled to Brazil to investigate this divergence, found himself asking why "Brazil's institutions, its Congress and its Supreme Court were so much more resistant than their American peers to power grabs and attempts to rule as an imperial executive."

The answer reveals uncomfortable truths about both democracies.

Institutional Resilience vs. Political Culture

Brazil's response reflects hard-learned lessons from its past. The country emerged from military dictatorship only in 1985, making democratic institutions acutely sensitive to authoritarian threats. Brazil's Supreme Court has consistently positioned itself as democracy's guardian, showing little tolerance for political pressure.

The United States, by contrast, may have fallen victim to its own democratic confidence. Two and a half centuries of continuous democracy perhaps bred complacency about institutional vulnerabilities. Political polarization compounded the problem—significant portions of the Republican Party continued supporting Trump, undermining the checks and balances that should have held him accountable.

In Brazil, Bolsonaro's coup attempt prompted bipartisan agreement on defending democracy. In America, January 6th remains a source of partisan division.

The Paradox of Democratic Strength

The comparison reveals a troubling paradox: sometimes newer democracies prove more vigilant defenders of democratic norms than established ones. Brazil's recent experience with authoritarianism inoculated it against democratic backsliding. America's long democratic tradition may have made it overconfident about its immunity to such threats.

This isn't just about individual leaders—it's about how political systems respond when those leaders cross red lines. Brazil's institutions held firm. America's bent.