Bitcoin Stuck at $60K as JPMorgan Bets Everything on U.S. Crypto Bill

If you're holding Bitcoin right now, you're probably feeling stuck. The world's largest cryptocurrency has been trading sideways around $60,000 for months, with volumes drying up and traders desperately searching for a catalyst. JPMorgan thinks it has found one—but there's a catch.

The investment bank's analysts believe the long-awaited Clarity Act could be the spark that finally breaks Bitcoin out of its rut. The problem? The bill is stuck in political limbo, and the crypto industry itself can't agree on whether it wants it to pass.

A Market Searching for Direction

Crypto markets have lacked conviction for months. Bitcoin remains range-bound around $60,000, Ethereum hovers near $2,000, and trading volumes across major exchanges have thinned significantly. Both retail and institutional investors are sitting on the sidelines, waiting for something—anything—to provide clear direction.

"While sentiment remains negative in crypto markets, we continue to believe that a potential approval of the market structure legislation most likely by mid year could serve as a positive catalyst," JPMorgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in their latest report.

The bank's thesis is straightforward: regulatory uncertainty has created a massive overhang on the asset class. Large asset managers, pension funds, and corporate treasuries that might otherwise allocate to crypto remain cautious without clear compliance frameworks. Remove that uncertainty, and sidelined capital could flood back into the market.

The Clarity Act: Promise and Peril

At its core, the proposed legislation would split oversight between the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), classifying tokens as either digital commodities or securities. The bill includes several provisions that could reshape the U.S. crypto landscape:

• Major tokens like XRP, Solana, and Litecoin would be treated as commodities under a "grandfather" clause
• New projects could raise up to $75 million annually without full SEC registration
• Clearer compliance pathways would reduce legal uncertainty for exchanges and issuers

JPMorgan's analysts argue that placing major tokens under CFTC jurisdiction would dramatically reduce compliance burdens. The grace period for new projects could revive the onshore issuance and venture funding that has largely shifted overseas due to regulatory hostility.

"A comprehensive framework defining oversight, token classifications and exchange obligations would remove one of the biggest overhangs on the asset class: uncertainty," the analysts noted.

Coinbase's Curveball

But just as momentum seemed to be building, Coinbase—the largest U.S. crypto exchange—threw a wrench into the works. In early 2026, the company publicly withdrew its support for the bill, arguing the current text could "hamper innovation, weaken competition, and restrict features like stablecoin rewards."

The move exposed deep divisions within the crypto industry. While some players desperately want any regulatory clarity, others fear that a flawed framework could lock in unfavorable rules for years to come.

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has blamed banking trade groups rather than individual banks for the stalled negotiations, highlighting the complex web of interests surrounding the legislation.

The Institutional Money Question

The stakes couldn't be higher. JPMorgan estimates that regulatory clarity could unlock a wave of institutional participation that would fundamentally transform crypto markets. Think deeper liquidity, compressed volatility, and new product development spanning from structured offerings to tokenized real-world assets.

Right now, much of that institutional capital remains on the sidelines. Corporate treasuries that might consider Bitcoin as a treasury asset, pension funds exploring digital asset allocations, and asset managers developing crypto products all face the same problem: regulatory uncertainty makes compliance a nightmare.

A clear regulatory framework wouldn't just steady prices—it could "potentially propel them sharply higher," according to JPMorgan's analysis.

The Political Reality

But politics rarely moves at market speed. The Senate Banking Committee markup that was supposed to advance the bill has been postponed indefinitely. Lawmakers are still wrangling over key provisions, and industry opposition has complicated what was already a delicate balancing act.

The irony isn't lost on market observers: an industry that prides itself on disrupting traditional finance can't agree on the rules it wants to operate under.