Bitcoin Bottom Could Be Weeks Away—If You're Measuring in Gold

If you bought $100,000 worth of bitcoin at its peak and watched it shrink to $65,000, here's a plot twist: you might be closer to the bottom than you think. But only if you're counting in gold, not dollars.

Two Clocks, Two Stories

Rony Szuster, Head of Research at Brazil's largest crypto exchange Mercado Bitcoin, says bitcoin's market bottom could arrive as soon as next month—when measured against gold. The logic? Bitcoin peaked against gold in January 2025, and historically, bitcoin bear markets last 12-13 months.

But switch to dollars, and the timeline stretches. Bitcoin hit $126,000 in October 2025. Apply the same pattern, and the downturn could extend into late 2026.

Why the divergence? Gold has surged over 80% in the past year to $5,280 per ounce. As global uncertainty exploded—Trump's trade wars, Middle East conflicts, institutional disputes—capital rotated into bullion. Bitcoin weakened against gold faster than against the dollar, creating this measurement gap.

Fear Money vs. Smart Money

The numbers tell a tale of two markets. Since November, about $7.8 billion has fled spot bitcoin ETFs—roughly 12% of total assets. Retail and institutional fear is palpable.

Yet while scared money runs for the exits, whale money is diving in. Abu Dhabi's Mubadala Investment Company and Al Warda Investments both added bitcoin ETF exposure in mid-February. They're treating panic as opportunity.

"Historically, buying during periods of fear has been more effective than buying during euphoria," Szuster notes. "Does this mean it's already the bottom? No. But it means that, statistically, we are in the zone where the best average prices are usually built."

SpaceX Feels the Pain Too

Even Elon Musk isn't immune. SpaceX's 8,285 bitcoin holdings have shed $235 million in value over three months, now worth about $545 million. With the company preparing for a June IPO that could raise $50 billion, investors will soon share in bitcoin's volatility—whether they want to or not.

The Measurement Trap

Here's what makes this analysis fascinating: same asset, different measuring stick, completely different narrative. Gold bugs see bitcoin approaching a bottom. Dollar devotees see months more pain ahead.

Both could be right.

Are you timing the market with dollars, gold, or something else entirely?