US Accuses China of Secret Nuclear Test, Proposes Three-Way Arms Control

While the world was distracted by the pandemic in 2020, China was allegedly conducting secret nuclear tests. This revelation, disclosed by the US at a global disarmament conference, signals more than diplomatic posturing—it may herald a fundamental shift in the global nuclear order.

The End of the Two-Player Game

The timing couldn't be more significant. Just one day after the US-Russia treaty limiting missile and warhead deployments expired, America publicly accused Beijing of covert nuclear testing and proposed a groundbreaking three-way arms control agreement involving the US, Russia, and China.

For decades, nuclear arms control has been primarily a bilateral affair between Washington and Moscow. But China's rapid nuclear modernization has shattered this framework. The Pentagon estimates China could possess over 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030—nearly triple its current estimated arsenal of 350.

This isn't just about numbers. Xi Jinping's China has officially maintained a "minimum deterrence" policy, yet US intelligence suggests a more aggressive expansion. The accusation of secret testing directly challenges Beijing's public narrative of nuclear restraint.

Why This Matters Now

The collapse of bilateral arms control comes at a precarious moment. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has normalized nuclear threats in ways unseen since the Cold War. Meanwhile, China's military buildup in the South China Sea and its "no limits" partnership with Russia have fundamentally altered strategic calculations.

For American allies, particularly in the Indo-Pacific, this represents both opportunity and risk. Japan has already committed to "counterstrike capabilities," while South Korea faces growing domestic pressure to consider its own nuclear options. Australia's AUKUS submarine deal reflects similar concerns about Chinese military expansion.

The economic implications are equally profound. Defense contractors from Lockheed Martin to Raytheon are already seeing increased demand for missile defense systems. Meanwhile, the semiconductor industry—crucial for modern weapons systems—faces new export restrictions and supply chain vulnerabilities.

China's Strategic Dilemma

Beijing finds itself in an uncomfortable position. Joining trilateral arms control would legitimize its status as a nuclear superpower but also constrain its military modernization at a critical juncture. Refusing participation, however, risks accelerating an arms race China may not be prepared to win.

China's nuclear doctrine has traditionally emphasized survivability over first-strike capability. But as tensions with the US intensify over Taiwan and trade, some Chinese strategists argue for a more robust deterrent. The question is whether Beijing can maintain strategic ambiguity while participating in transparent arms control.

European allies generally support the US proposal, viewing comprehensive arms control as essential for global stability. However, they also worry about being sidelined in discussions that could reshape the global security architecture. NATO members, particularly those bordering Russia, see trilateral arms control as crucial for preventing nuclear proliferation.

The Bigger Picture

This moment reflects a broader shift from the post-Cold War "unipolar moment" to a multipolar world where nuclear weapons play an increasingly central role. Unlike the US-Soviet rivalry, which was primarily ideological, today's competition involves three distinct strategic cultures and security environments.

The challenge isn't just technical—how to verify compliance or define equivalent capabilities—but philosophical. Can nations with fundamentally different views on sovereignty, deterrence, and international order agree on shared nuclear rules?