US-Russia Nuclear Treaty Expires, Opening Door to New Arms Race

For the first time in 14 years, America and Russia are free to build as many nuclear weapons as they want. The New START treaty expired Thursday, ending the last remaining arms control agreement between the world's two largest nuclear powers.

Russia's Foreign Ministry declared Wednesday that both nations are "no longer bound by any obligations" under the treaty, after the US failed to respond to Putin's proposal for a 12-month extension. The move opens the door to a potential arms race that could fundamentally reshape global security.

The End of Nuclear Restraint

Signed in 2010 by Barack Obama and Russia's Dmitry Medvedev, New START capped each country's deployed strategic nuclear warheads at 1,550. These are the long-range weapons designed to hit an adversary's most critical targets—think capital cities, military command centers, and major industrial hubs.

Without these limits, both nations could theoretically double their deployed arsenals. Matt Korda from the Federation of American Scientists warns that "each side will be free to upload hundreds of additional warheads onto their deployed missiles and heavy bombers."

But theory and reality are different beasts. Actually building more nuclear weapons takes years and costs billions. You need new warheads, upgraded delivery systems, expanded storage facilities, and trained personnel. It's not like ordering more tanks.

Trump's Three-Way Vision

Donald Trump isn't mourning the treaty's death. "If it expires, it expires," he told The New York Times last month. "We'll just do a better agreement."

Trump's real goal? Bringing China to the negotiating table. Beijing currently has about 500 nuclear warheads, but the Pentagon estimates this could grow to 1,500 by 2035. The old US-Russia duopoly no longer reflects nuclear reality.

China has long resisted joining arms control talks, arguing its arsenal is much smaller than the superpowers'. But as Beijing rapidly modernizes its nuclear forces—including new mobile missiles, submarines, and bombers—that excuse grows thinner.

The Ripple Effects

The treaty's expiration creates headaches far beyond Washington and Moscow. US allies in Europe and Asia are already nervous about their security guarantees. If Russia starts cranking out more nukes, America might need to redirect resources from other commitments.

Pope Francis captured the broader anxiety in his weekly address: "I issue an urgent appeal not to let this instrument lapse. It is more urgent than ever to replace the logic of fear and distrust with a shared ethic."

Defense contractors, meanwhile, are likely eyeing new opportunities. A renewed arms race typically means bigger budgets for missile defense systems, early warning radars, and nuclear modernization programs.

The China Factor

Beijing holds the keys to what happens next. China's nuclear expansion isn't just about numbers—it's about capability and credibility. New DF-41 intercontinental ballistic missiles can reach anywhere in the continental US. Nuclear-powered submarines provide a survivable second-strike capability.

This creates a strategic triangle that's inherently less stable than the old Cold War balance. Three-way nuclear relationships are mathematically more complex, with more potential failure points and misunderstandings.