The Fragile Foundation of Putin's War Support

80% approval rating. That's what polls show for Putin's war in Ukraine. But what if this number is hiding more than it reveals?

Conventional wisdom suggests that as wars drag on, public enthusiasm wanes. After all, ordinary citizens bear the economic and human costs. Yet as Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine enters its fifth year, Russian public opinion remains puzzling: Just over half expect the war to end in 2026, while a majority say Moscow should "escalate" if negotiations fail.

This ambiguity gives Putin cover to continue his Ukrainian campaign. But a deeper look suggests his support may be more fragile than the Kremlin wants to believe.

The Social Contract Under Strain

Western strategy has banked on a simple premise: economic sanctions would eventually pressure either Russian elites or society to persuade Putin to abandon the war.

This assumes Putin's legitimacy rests on a social contract—Russians stay loyal if they enjoy stable living standards and can pursue private lives without state interference.

Russia's economy has struggled since 2014, leading many analysts to believe this contract was already fraying before the invasion. Four years of war, European market exclusion, and tripled military spending have created economic stagnation and mounting pressure on living standards.

But the social contract approach has a blind spot: it downplays ideology's role. Putin's "Make Russia Great Again" messaging may genuinely resonate with significant portions of the public. Polling has consistently placed his approval above 80% since the conflict began.

The Polling Problem

Of course, measuring public opinion in an authoritarian state at war presents obvious challenges. Independent pollsters still operating in Russia report 60-70% support for the "special military operation." But researchers highlight the difficulty of getting accurate snapshots when survey questions might make respondents fear lengthy prison sentences for "spreading fake news" or "discrediting the army."

The Levada Center, considered relatively reliable and independent, conducts face-to-face interviews but has very low response rates. Online polls offering monetary rewards can find demographically balanced respondents, but wariness about giving regime-critical answers persists.

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In Russia's current environment, refusing to answer or giving socially acceptable responses is simply rational.

'Internal Emigration' and Everyday Truths

Most Russian citizens avoid political discussion altogether, retreating into what's called "internal emigration"—living their own lives while minimizing contact with authorities. This practice dates back to Soviet times but resurfaced as political repression increased after Putin's 2012 return to the presidency.

There are undoubtedly fervent war supporters in Russia. They're vocal and visible because the state allows them to be—like military bloggers reporting from front lines.

But everyday practices reveal the limits of genuine support. If popular enthusiasm were real, recruitment offices would be overwhelmed. They're not. Instead, Russia relies heavily on financial incentives, aggressive advertising, prison recruitment, and coercive mobilization. Meanwhile, hundreds of thousands of men have sought to avoid conscription by leaving the country, hiding from authorities, or exploiting legal exemptions.

Reality vs. Lived Experience

High-profile propaganda often fails to resonate. Russian music charts and streaming platforms aren't dominated by patriotic anthems but by songs about personal relationships—Jakone's moody ballad "Eyes As Wet As Asphalt," praise for "Hoodies," even catchy Bashkir folk songs.

Book sales show strong demand for George Orwell's "1984" and Viktor Frankl's Holocaust memoir "Man's Search for Meaning"—suggesting readers seek to understand authoritarianism, trauma, and moral responsibility rather than celebrate militarism.

Instead of watching state-backed "Tolerance," a dystopian tale of Western moral decay, Russians are streaming "Heated Rivalry," a gay hockey romance.

Putin's campaign to promote traditional values appears ineffective. Divorce rates remain among the world's highest, and birth rates continue falling.

Historical Echoes

As the Ukraine war enters its fifth year, the gulf between Kremlin reality and ordinary Russians' lived experience persists. This echoes a familiar pattern: In the Soviet Union's final decade, the Kremlin became increasingly disconnected from its people's views.

History won't necessarily repeat itself—but the masters of the Kremlin should be conscious of the parallels.