Uber's Trillion-Dollar AV Bet: Vision or Delusion?

$296 million. That's what Uber earned in net income last quarter. But CEO Dara Khosrowshahi wasn't talking about the present—he was selling the future. A "multi-trillion dollar" future powered by autonomous vehicles.

Uber reported fourth-quarter results Wednesday that beat analyst expectations across key metrics. Revenue climbed to $14.37 billion, up from $12 billion a year earlier. The delivery business stole the show, surging 30% to $4.9 billion and beating the $4.72 billion analyst estimate.

But Wall Street's attention quickly shifted from quarterly numbers to Khosrowshahi's bold predictions about autonomous vehicles reshaping the entire mobility landscape.

The AV Acceleration Play

Khosrowshahi didn't just talk about gradual adoption—he outlined an aggressive expansion timeline. By the end of 2026, Uber expects to facilitate AV trips in up to 15 cities globally. By 2029? "We intend to be the largest facilitator of AV trips in the world."

The expansion list reads like a global mobility wishlist: Houston, Los Angeles, San Francisco, London, Munich, Hong Kong, Zurich, and Madrid. It's an ambitious bet that autonomous vehicles will move from novelty to necessity within five years.

What's particularly intriguing is Uber's data from Atlanta and Austin, where AV services launched in 2025. Rather than cannibalizing human drivers, the introduction of autonomous vehicles "significantly accelerated" overall trip growth—even for traditional rides. The implication? AVs don't just replace existing demand; they create new demand.

Reality Check: The Long Game

But Khosrowshahi himself provided the sobering counterpoint: "Autonomous vehicles are likely to remain a very small portion of the rideshare category for many years to come." Technological hurdles, regulatory barriers, and public acceptance all stand in the way of widespread adoption.

This creates a fascinating tension in Uber's strategy. The company must invest heavily in AV partnerships and infrastructure today for returns that may not materialize for years. Meanwhile, it needs to keep growing its traditional business—and keep drivers happy—during this transition period.

The company isn't putting all its eggs in the AV basket. Uber is simultaneously expanding its Uber One subscription program, growing its advertising business, and integrating with ChatGPT to help users "discover services and restaurants" before checkout.

The Market's Mixed Signals

Uber shares initially fell after the earnings report, then rallied 3% during the analyst call as management discussed AV progress. Year-to-date, the stock is down about 5%—a sign that investors remain cautious about the company's ambitious timeline.

The skepticism isn't unfounded. Waymo, Alphabet's autonomous vehicle subsidiary, has been operating in San Francisco since 2024, yet still serves a tiny fraction of total rides. Scaling from pilot programs to mass adoption involves challenges that pure technology can't solve.

The Winner-Takes-Most Gamble

What makes Uber's AV strategy particularly high-stakes is the winner-takes-most nature of platform businesses. If autonomous vehicles do unlock a "multi-trillion dollar opportunity," the companies that establish dominant positions early could capture outsized returns. But the flip side is equally true—late movers might find themselves permanently locked out.

Uber's advantage lies in its existing platform and relationships with cities, regulators, and consumers. Rather than building its own autonomous vehicles, the company is positioning itself as the intermediary—the "iOS for autonomous mobility," as one analyst put it.