Can Trump Revive Venezuela's Oil Production in 18 Months?

Over 2 million barrels a day are missing from the global market. While analysts warn it'll take years to fix, the Trump administration insists they've got the tools to ramp up Venezuela's oil output fast. Following the seizure of leader Nicolas Maduro in Caracas last Saturday, the race to unlock the world's largest oil reserves has officially begun.

The Trump Venezuela Oil Production 2026 Strategy

According to Reuters, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum stated that lifting sanctions is a primary lever to give Venezuela access to critical oil field equipment. Exports have plunged from over 3 million bpd two decades ago to under 1 million bpd today. Donald Trump believes U.S. industry could expand operations in less than 18 months, potentially using subsidies to bridge the massive financial gap.

Degraded Infrastructure Meets $60 Oil

Oil executives aren't buying the quick-fix narrative just yet. Goldman Sachs research head Daan Struyven noted that increasing output beyond 400,000 barrels a day within a year is highly unlikely due to crumbling infrastructure. With global prices hovering around $60 a barrel, Venezuela's heavy, thick crude remains some of the costliest to develop, requiring specialized tech that hasn't been in the country for years.