Trump Venezuela Oil Investment 2026: Industry Skepticism Grows

The oil is there, but are the investors? President Donald Trump is betting big on Venezuela's energy future following the removal of Nicolas Maduro. However, his vision of U.S. oil giants pouring billions of dollars into the country's decaying infrastructure is facing a harsh reality check from the industry itself.

Trump Venezuela Oil Investment Promise vs. Market Reality

During a January 3 news conference at Mar-a-Lago, Trump claimed that the world's largest oil companies are ready to fix Venezuela's "badly broken" infrastructure. Secretary of State Marco Rubio echoed this sentiment on ABC’s This Week, predicting "dramatic interest" from Western firms. Yet, when PolitiFact reached out to the industry, the responses were far from enthusiastic.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) stated they're "closely watching" developments but emphasized that investment decisions depend on stability and the rule of law. ConocoPhillips also called any speculation on future business "premature." Currently, Chevron remains the only major U.S. player with a consistent presence in the region.

The Steep Price of Rebuilding a Broken Giant

Experts point to several massive hurdles. Venezuela's oil industry has suffered from decades of nationalization and underinvestment. Reclaiming its former glory would require a new legal framework and years of drilling. Furthermore, crude oil prices have fallen by approximately one-quarter since Trump took office, making expensive new projects less attractive.

Domestic trends in the USA also suggest caution. U.S. oil rig counts have dropped 16% since their April peak. If companies aren't drilling at home where it's safe, they aren't likely to rush into a volatile post-Maduro Venezuela without rock-solid guarantees.