Trump's Iran Gambit: Diplomacy or War Preparation?

Ten days. That's the maximum deadline President Trump gave Iran to strike a nuclear deal. But while diplomats talk in Switzerland and Austria, two US aircraft carriers patrol Iranian waters and American embassy staff in Israel receive orders to evacuate "TODAY."

Is this sophisticated diplomatic pressure or preparation for war?

The Secretary's Fifth Visit

Secretary of State Marco Rubio heads to Israel next week for what will be his fifth trip since taking office just 13 months ago. The March 2-3 visit focuses on Iran relations, Lebanon, and implementing Trump's 20-point Gaza plan.

The timing is telling. Rubio arrives in Israel the same day a fourth round of US-Iran indirect talks begins in Austria, following last week's negotiations in Switzerland that left Trump visibly frustrated.

"I'm not happy with the fact that they're not willing to give us what we have to have," Trump told reporters Friday. "Sometimes you have to" use military force, he added ominously.

Meanwhile, US Ambassador Mike Huckabee authorized embassy staff to leave Israel immediately, citing "safety risks" from "terrorism and civil unrest." The message was clear: tensions may soon boil over.

Maximum Pressure 2.0

Trump's approach appears to be an escalated version of his first-term "maximum pressure" campaign. Since January, a "massive armada" including aircraft carriers USS Gerald Ford and USS Abraham Lincoln has positioned near Iran.

The military threats aren't just posturing. Last June, Operation Midnight Hammer bombed three Iranian nuclear facilities during a 12-day conflict. This year, Trump threatened military intervention to "rescue" Iranian protesters, claiming he "stopped them from hanging a lot of them with the threat of serious violence."

But Iran isn't backing down. While acknowledging positions are "close" on many issues, Tehran demands the US drop what it calls "excessive demands" – not just nuclear program dismantlement, but ballistic missile elimination and severing ties with regional allies like Hezbollah.

The JCPOA Ghost

The current negotiations aim to rebuild the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – the very deal Trump abandoned during his first presidency, calling it "the worst deal in history."

That withdrawal triggered Iran's uranium enrichment escalation. Now, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) cannot access the three sites bombed in Operation Midnight Hammer, leaving Iran's nuclear stockpile size unknown.

Oman, mediating the talks, struck an optimistic tone, describing "significant, important and unprecedented progress." But Trump remains skeptical: "They are not getting there."

The Escalation Trap

When asked about risking a wider regional war, Trump shrugged off concerns, citing "tremendous luck" with previous military actions, including the 2020 assassination of Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani.

"I guess you could say there's always a risk," he said. "Everything's worked out, and we want to keep it that way."

Yet UN High Commissioner for Human RightsVolker Turk warned that eight Iranian protesters face death sentences, with 30 more at risk. He expressed alarm about "potential for regional military escalation and its impact on civilians."