Trump's $133 Billion Tariff Refund Chaos: Who Gets the Money?

A $133 billion question hangs over American commerce: The Supreme Court killed Trump's tariffs, but who gets the money back?

Friday's 6-3 Supreme Court decision striking down President Trump's sweeping tariffs was decisive. What comes next? Pure chaos, according to trade lawyers bracing for what Justice Brett Kavanaugh called a "mess."

The Court's Verdict: Clear as Mud

The Supreme Court ruled that Trump's use of the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose double-digit tariffs on virtually every country was invalid. Congress holds the power to tax imports, not the president.

But here's the twist: Two of Trump's own Supreme Court appointees joined the majority against him. The decision was legally clear but practically murky—the justices said nothing about what happens to the $133 billion already collected.

"We'll end up being in court for the next five years," Trump fumed at a press conference, calling some justices "absolutely shameful."

The Refund Maze: Companies First, Consumers Last

Who's getting their money back? The answer reveals everything wrong with how tariff costs flow through the economy.

The Winners: Import companies like Costco, Revlon, and Bumble Bee Foods have already filed lawsuits claiming refunds. They paid the tariffs directly to customs and have clear paper trails. Trade lawyer Joyce Adetutu from Vinson & Elkins expects a "bumpy ride" but believes importers will eventually recover their money.

The Losers: American consumers who paid higher prices when companies passed along tariff costs. Proving that your expensive groceries resulted from specific tariffs? Nearly impossible.

Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker is demanding $8.7 billion for his state's 5.11 million households—about $1,700 per family. Nevada's treasurer wants $2.1 billion. But trade lawyer Alexis Early warns consumers against wasting money on legal fees: "In America, we have the ability to file a lawsuit for anything we want," she notes dryly.

The Administrative Nightmare Ahead

The U.S. Customs and Border Protection agency has never handled anything like this—thousands of importers seeking tens of billions in refunds simultaneously. The process could take 12 to 18 months, estimates TD Securities.

Customs might build on existing error-correction procedures or create entirely new systems. There's precedent from the 1990s when courts struck down an unconstitutional harbor maintenance fee and established refund mechanisms. But that involved far less money and fewer claimants.

"Just because the process is difficult to administer doesn't mean the government has the right to hold on to fees that were collected unlawfully," argues trade lawyer Early.

The Bigger Economic Picture

Beyond the legal circus, the tariff reversal could ease inflationary pressure and stimulate economic growth through refunds—essentially tax rebates. But the impact will be modest and slow.

Most countries still face steep U.S. tariffs on specific sectors, and Trump intends to replace the struck-down levies using other legal authorities. The Supreme Court didn't reject tariffs as policy—just Trump's chosen legal pathway.

Meanwhile, manufacturers might sue for shares of any refunds given to suppliers who raised prices to cover tariffs. "We may see years of ongoing litigation in multiple jurisdictions," Early predicts.