US Futures Rise After Selloff, But Tariff and AI Fears Persist

After yesterday's brutal 3%+ selloff, US stock futures are showing signs of life. But don't mistake this technical bounce for an all-clear signal—the fundamental worries that triggered the rout haven't gone anywhere.

The Numbers Behind the Recovery

Nasdaq futures climbed 0.8% while S&P 500 futures gained 0.6% in overnight trading. It's the kind of reflexive buying you'd expect after such a sharp decline, but scratch beneath the surface and two major concerns remain unresolved.

First: Trump's tariff threats. The prospect of 60% tariffs on Chinese goods has investors recalculating profit margins across industries that depend on global supply chains. Second: the growing chorus questioning whether AI investments have run too far ahead of actual returns.

Winners and Losers in the New Reality

This isn't just about market sentiment—it's about reshaping entire business models. Companies with heavy China exposure, like Apple and Tesla, face a potential earnings hit if tariffs materialize. Meanwhile, domestic manufacturers and "reshoring" plays could benefit.

The AI story is more nuanced. While NVIDIA and the mega-cap tech stocks have carried markets higher, smaller AI companies with questionable business models are getting hammered. The market is starting to separate real AI value from pure speculation.

What Your Portfolio Doesn't Know Yet

Here's what the futures rally might be missing: policy uncertainty creates investment paralysis. Even if companies can absorb higher costs, the unpredictability of trade policy makes long-term planning nearly impossible.

Consider this—Fortune 500 CEOs are already quietly diversifying supply chains, but that takes years and billions in capital. The immediate impact? Higher costs and lower margins, regardless of where tariffs actually land.

The Bigger Picture

Markets hate uncertainty, but they adapt. The question isn't whether tariffs will hurt—it's which companies will emerge stronger. Similarly, the AI correction might be healthy, forcing investors to focus on actual revenue rather than PowerPoint promises.

What's really at stake is the post-globalization investment playbook. The old rules about efficient markets and global supply chains are being rewritten in real-time.