Why Somalia Is Building Military Alliances Against Israel's Somaliland Gambit

A new military axis is forming in the Horn of Africa. Somalia has signed defense agreements with both Qatar last month and Saudi Arabia this week, ostensibly for "regional stability." But the real driver is far more specific: countering Israel's unprecedented recognition of Somaliland and the potential establishment of an Israeli military base there.

The Strategic Chess Game

On Monday in Riyadh, Somali Defense Minister Ahmed Moallim Fiqi and his Saudi counterpart, Prince Khalid bin Salman bin Abdulaziz, signed a military cooperation memorandum. The agreement "aims to strengthen the frameworks of defense and military cooperation between the two countries," Somalia's Ministry of Defense announced, though neither country provided specifics about what this cooperation entails.

The Saudi deal follows a similar pact with Qatar last month, focused on "military training, exchange of expertise, development of defense capabilities, and enhanced security cooperation." The timing isn't coincidental—both agreements came after Israel became the world's first country to recognize Somaliland's independence in December 2024.

Somalia's diplomatic offensive reveals a calculated strategy: building regional military backing against what Mogadishu sees as an existential threat to its territorial integrity.

The Israeli Base Question

Somalia's fears aren't unfounded. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud told Al Jazeera last week that his government "will never allow" an Israeli military base in Somaliland and will "confront" any such move. "We will fight in our capacity," he declared. "We will confront any Israeli forces coming in."

A Somaliland official confirmed to Israel's Channel 12 in January that an Israeli military base is "on the table," though terms are still being negotiated. For Somalia, this represents more than a sovereignty challenge—it's a potential launching pad for Israeli operations across the region.

The strategic value is clear: Somaliland's location provides access to the Red Sea shipping lanes and proximity to Middle Eastern conflicts. For Israel, facing isolation in much of the region, Somaliland offers a rare foothold in Africa.

Breaking with Old Allies

Somalia's military partnerships come alongside a dramatic diplomatic realignment. Last month, Mogadishu cancelled all agreements with the United Arab Emirates, including port operations, security, and defense deals, citing "harmful actions" that undermine its "national unity and political independence."

The UAE connection runs deep. Since normalizing ties with Israel in 2020 under the Abraham Accords, the UAE has cultivated extensive economic and security relationships with Somaliland. UAE company DP World holds a 30-year concession at the strategic Berbera port, making the Emirates a key stakeholder in Somaliland's economy.

Reports suggest the UAE facilitated Israel's recognition of Somaliland, though Abu Dhabi declined to sign a joint Arab-Islamic statement condemning the move. The UAE later issued a statement with the African Union supporting "Somalia's sovereignty, territorial integrity, security and stability"—but the damage to bilateral relations was done.

The Broader Regional Fracture

Somalia's break with the UAE coincides with deteriorating Saudi-Emirati relations across multiple theaters. In December, Saudi forces bombed what Riyadh described as a UAE weapons shipment to Yemen's separatist Southern Transitional Council. Saudi Arabia also backed calls for Emirati forces to withdraw from Yemen entirely.

The tensions extend to Sudan, where the UAE faces accusations of supporting the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) against the Sudanese Armed Forces. Saudi Arabia, backing Khartoum, condemned the RSF on Saturday over attacks in Sudan's Kordofan region that killed dozens, including women and children.

Riyadh also denounced "foreign interference" and the "continued influx of illegal weapons, mercenaries and foreign fighters" prolonging Sudan's nearly three-year war—a clear reference to alleged UAE involvement, though Saudi officials didn't name names.

Sudan has taken the dispute to international courts, filing a case against the UAE at the International Court of Justice last year, accusing it of "complicity in genocide" allegedly committed by the RSF against the Masalit community. The UAE dismissed this as a "cynical publicity stunt."

The Alignment Calculus

For Somalia, the choice of Saudi Arabia and Qatar as military partners reflects both necessity and opportunity. Both countries oppose UAE policies in the region and have the military capabilities Somalia needs. Saudi Arabia brings significant defense resources and regional influence, while Qatar offers advanced training and equipment.

The alignment also serves Saudi and Qatari interests. For Riyadh, supporting Somalia provides leverage against UAE influence in the Horn of Africa and demonstrates Saudi leadership in the Arab world. For Qatar, still recovering from the 2017-2021 blockade by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, backing Somalia offers a chance to project influence in a strategically important region.