$1.8B Quantum Bet: Innovation Breakthrough or Market Bubble?

Is $1.8 billion the right price for potential?

Finnish quantum computing company IQM just announced it's going public via SPAC, commanding a $1.8 billion valuation. That's a hefty price tag for a company that spun out of university labs just eight years ago.

Here's the math that should make investors pause: IQM reported $35 million in 2025 revenue. That puts its price-to-sales ratio at roughly 50x – compared to typical tech companies trading at 10-20x. Even with $100 million in bookings, the numbers feel stretched.

The quantum gold rush is heating up

Quantum stocks have been on fire lately. Google's "quantum advantage" claims and government funding announcements have investors convinced we're on the brink of a commercial breakthrough. Infleqtion soared on its NYSE debut this month, while Canada's Xanadu is prepping for a March Nasdaq listing.

The excitement is understandable. Quantum computing promises to revolutionize drug discovery, materials science, and financial modeling. But here's the reality check: industrial applications are still years away, according to most experts.

SPAC déjà vu from 2021?

IQM's choice of a SPAC route raises eyebrows. Sure, it's faster than a traditional IPO, but SPACs peaked in 2021 and left many investors nursing heavy losses. Now quantum companies are reviving this playbook just as market enthusiasm peaks again.

The pattern feels familiar: promising technology, distant commercialization timeline, and investors betting on potential rather than performance. Real Asset Acquisition Corp., the blank-check company merging with IQM, trades on Nasdaq – but will list as American Depositary Shares, adding another layer of complexity.

Different lenses, different risks

For venture investors: IQM has raised $569 million to date, with backers including Ten Eleven Ventures and Germany's Schwarz Group. The SPAC provides an exit opportunity and validates the quantum thesis.

For retail investors: You're essentially betting that quantum computing will deliver on its promises within your investment timeline. The $450 million cash runway post-merger provides breathing room, but burns through R&D quickly.

For competitors: IBM, Google, and other quantum players are watching closely. A successful public quantum company could accelerate industry consolidation or spark an acquisition spree.

The Nordic twist

Unlike pure-play U.S. quantum companies, IQM is considering dual listings on both American and Nordic exchanges. This geographic diversification could provide more stable investor base and regulatory flexibility – or complicate trading liquidity.

Finland's tech ecosystem, which produced Nokia and Supercell, has a track record of global success. But quantum computing requires different fundamentals than mobile games or networking equipment.