Four Years Later, Ukraine War Defies All Predictions

"It'll be over in a few weeks." That's what Vladimir Putin reportedly said when Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine. Four years later, those words read like a masterclass in strategic miscalculation.

When Russian forces crossed the border on February 24, 2022, the global consensus was remarkably uniform. Kyiv would fall within days. Ukrainian resistance would crumble. American security officials told Newsweek they expected the capital to be neutralized almost immediately.

Today, Kyiv's streets are clogged with rush-hour traffic, restaurants are packed, and life pulses through a city that was supposed to be under Russian control by now.

The Numbers Don't Lie

Russia has managed to seize about 10 percent of Ukrainian territory—a far cry from the swift conquest many predicted. The nearest Russian-held positions sit more than 300 kilometers from Kyiv, and Moscow has reportedly lost 1.3 million soldiers to death or serious injury in the process.

Perhaps most ironically, the war launched partly to prevent NATO expansion has achieved the opposite. Sweden and Finland have joined the alliance, with Finland sharing an 1,340-kilometer border with Russia. Ukraine itself now boasts one of Europe's largest and most battle-tested militaries.

"While we are fighting, we are not losers, we are winners," says Oleksandr Merezhko, a Ukrainian parliamentarian. "Each day we survive means victory for us."

The Reality Check

But survival isn't the same as victory. Ukraine's battlefield successes have been limited and costly. A major counteroffensive failed to deliver breakthrough results. A brief incursion into Russia's Kursk region was ultimately repelled, costing thousands of lives.

Most critically, Ukraine faces a manpower crisis. "It is the fourth year of war, and the people who were idealistic and ready to volunteer are running out," explains Glib Voloskyi, a researcher at Come Back Alive, a Ukrainian military support foundation. "The mobilization process is getting harder and harder."

The Economics of Endless War

Ukraine's war effort runs on European generosity. In January, the European Union approved a 90 billion euro loan expected to fund military needs through 2027. With continued financial assistance and arms supplies, Kyiv appears positioned to sustain its fight indefinitely.

But sustainability isn't victory. "I don't see how this war can end anytime soon," says Volodymyr Proskura, a Lviv resident. "There may be a ceasefire at some point, but it could simply lead to another war in a few years."

Two Perspectives on Stalemate

Russia's View: The war remains justified as a defensive measure against Western encroachment. NATO expansion and Ukraine's militarization—the stated root causes—have only intensified, validating Moscow's concerns from their perspective.

Ukraine's View: Every day of resistance represents victory against a larger aggressor. The war has transformed Ukraine into a modern, battle-ready nation that's proven its sovereignty through blood and determination.

The Reality: Both sides have achieved partial objectives while failing in their primary goals. Russia hasn't conquered Ukraine, but Ukraine hasn't expelled Russian forces either.