Munich's Message: How Europe Really Heard America's New Tune

There's no better place to gauge the real impact of American foreign policy than the overflow room at the Munich Security Conference, sitting on the floor beneath the speakers, watching faces gathered around screens. While prime ministers and presidents occupy the main hall, the real reactions come from here—from security analysts, lieutenant colonels, drone engineers, and hundreds of professionals whose lives revolve around ending wars and projecting security.

The Same Hope, The Same Disappointment

Just like last year, this crowd hoped to hear how the U.S. would contribute to ending the war in Ukraine, bringing peace to Europe, and maintaining global security. And just like last year, they left disappointed.

Marco Rubio's Saturday keynote was more civil than J.D. Vance's2025 performance, which attacked and insulted many European governments in the room. But the goals remained eerily similar. No mention of the war. No suggestion that America would help Europe win it. No belief that Russia could be defeated. No reference to the democratic values and shared belief in freedom that once motivated NATO.

Instead, Rubio offered unity based on a misty concept of inherited "Western civilization"—Dante, Shakespeare, the Sistine Chapel, the Beatles. The real enemies? Not Russia or China, but migration, the "climate cult," and modern degeneracy.

A Diplomatic Rorschach Test

The speech worked like an inkblot test. If you wanted positive news, you might've been satisfied by emotive expressions of unity. But a German colleague clearly heard a "dog whistle" to the far right. Polish attendees noticed the list of great men and artworks excluded anyone from their half of the European continent. An Indian analyst was alarmed by praise for colonialism.

In Rubio's repeated Christian references, Americans heard shout-outs to Christian nationalists. And many noticed the oddity of anti-migration rhetoric coming from a son of migrants.

The message was clear from Elbridge Colby, undersecretary of defense for policy, who promoted a "Europeanized NATO" that defends itself, with America perhaps offering a theoretical nuclear umbrella. He dismissed the "cloud-castle abstraction of the rules-based international order" and warned against basing "alliances on sentiment alone."

Contradictions in Practice

But here's where it gets interesting. Right after Munich, Rubio flew to Bratislava and Budapest, heaping praise on Viktor Orbán. Trump, he told the Hungarian prime minister, is "deeply committed to your success"—a clear reference to upcoming elections Orbán is likely to lose if conducted fairly.

This creates a fascinating contradiction. Orbán, like far-right leaders in Germany and France with close MAGA ties, opposes European rearmament. He's not just blocking a "Europeanized NATO"—he operates as Russia's de facto spokesman inside the European Union.

Rubio himself signed a letter in 2019 denouncing Orbán for "democratic erosion." Yet now the administration supports someone who creates major security headaches for everyone else, while Russians wage war on Ukraine, send drones into Europe, stage cyber attacks, and cut undersea cables in the Baltic.

Europe's Unexpected Response

The unintended consequences are already emerging. Yesterday, Politico's Brussels Playbook reported that finance ministers from six European states met to discuss integrating the continent's financial systems into a capital-markets union. The goal: jump-start the economy.

As a German friend likes to say, "Nobody likes capital, nobody likes markets, and nobody likes unions"—which explains why this long-discussed idea never created popular enthusiasm. But the Trump administration has changed everything.

If Europe must emancipate itself from the United States and prepare to defeat Russia, European defense and technology companies need to grow much faster and raise much more money than currently possible. Instead of investing in America, Europeans will keep more money at home.

None of this is business as usual—and that might be exactly the point.