South Korea Watches Nervously as Trump Plans China Visit

"We are keeping all possibilities in mind." Those carefully chosen words from South Korea's Ambassador to the US Kang Kyung-wha on Tuesday reveal more than they conceal. As President Donald Trump prepares to visit China next month for talks with Xi Jinping, speculation is mounting that he might attempt to reengage with Kim Jong-un during his Asian trip.

The Return of Trump's Personal Diplomacy

Trump's planned visit to China from late March to early April isn't just another diplomatic engagement. It comes at a moment when North Korea's relationship with China appears to be strengthening, and Kim Jong-un is expected to outline his regime's policy direction at the ninth congress of the ruling Workers' Party this week.

The timing is hardly coincidental. Seoul's top nuclear envoy Jeong Yeon-doo arrived in Washington Tuesday for four-day talks with Under Secretary of State Allison Hooker and other officials, precisely as North Korea's political elite gather in Pyongyang for their most important party meeting.

Ambassador Kang emphasized that South Korea has been monitoring the situation "taking into account various factors, including the developments in the Russia-Ukraine war, the relations between the U.S. and China and the relations between North Korea and China." This isn't mere diplomatic speak—it reflects Seoul's acute awareness that Korean Peninsula issues are increasingly intertwined with broader geopolitical currents.

Seoul's Uncomfortable Déjà Vu

For South Korea, Trump's potential reengagement with North Korea triggers uncomfortable memories. During Trump's first term, the Singapore and Hanoi summits with Kim Jong-un largely sidelined South Korea, despite the peninsula being at the heart of the discussions. The talks ultimately collapsed, but not before Seoul experienced what it felt like to be a spectator to its own security destiny.

Kang sought to reassure concerns, noting that "the U.S. has consistently said that there is no change in its policy toward North Korea, and that it will closely communicate (with South Korea) before and after the fact to ensure that there won't be anything that will catch Seoul off guard."

Yet diplomatic assurances and Trump's top-down diplomatic style don't always align. South Korea's emphasis on maintaining "regular" communication with the National Security Council and State Department suggests Seoul is taking no chances this time around.

The Tariff Complication

Complicating matters further is Trump's new 10 percent global tariff, which began implementation Tuesday and could rise to 15 percent. This isn't just an economic headache for South Korean companies—it's a reminder of how Trump tends to view all relationships through a transactional lens.

Ambassador Kang acknowledged the "uncertainty" over tariff refund procedures and promised close consultations with Korean companies operating in the US. But the broader question looms: will Trump use economic pressure on allies like South Korea as leverage in his broader strategic competition with China?

The ambassador diplomatically stated that South Korea would "respond in a way that best serves national interests" regarding the Supreme Court ruling on tariffs—a phrase that could mean anything from quiet compliance to strategic pushback.

The Bigger Chess Game

What's unfolding isn't just about North Korea or trade tariffs in isolation. It's about how Trump views the entire East Asian strategic landscape. His approach to China will inevitably shape his approach to North Korea, which in turn affects South Korea's security calculations.

For Beijing, hosting Trump while Kim Jong-un potentially waits in the wings offers a chance to demonstrate its continued relevance in Korean Peninsula affairs. For Pyongyang, any renewed dialogue with Washington could provide economic relief and international legitimacy. For Seoul, the challenge is ensuring its voice isn't lost in this great power maneuvering.