Why Seoul Keeps 'All Possibilities' Open as Trump Plans China Visit

When Ambassador Kang Kyung-wha told reporters in Washington on February 24th that Seoul is "keeping all possibilities in mind," her carefully chosen words revealed more than diplomatic caution. They exposed the fundamental challenge facing middle powers in an era of great power competition: how do you maintain influence when the biggest decisions are made without you in the room?

The context makes her statement even more telling. President Trump is planning a visit to China from late next month through early April, sparking speculation about potential re-engagement with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un while in Asia. For South Korea, this represents both opportunity and anxiety.

The Timing Game

The convergence of events this week is hardly coincidental. As North Korea's Workers' Party holds its ninth congress—a key political event where Kim Jong-un is expected to outline his regime's diplomatic and defense direction—Seoul's top nuclear envoy Jeong Yeon-doo arrives in Washington for four days of talks with senior State Department officials.

This diplomatic choreography reflects South Korea's attempt to stay ahead of the curve. "We are monitoring the situation, comprehensively taking into account various factors, including the developments in the Russia-Ukraine war, the relations between the U.S. and China and the relations between North Korea and China," Kang explained.

But monitoring isn't the same as controlling. South Korea learned this lesson painfully during Trump's first term, when the 2018 Singapore summit and 2019 Hanoi meeting left Seoul scrambling to understand what had been discussed behind closed doors.

The Trade War Subplot

North Korea isn't the only source of uncertainty. The Trump administration's new 10 percent global tariff, implemented Tuesday under Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, adds another layer of complexity to the US-South Korea relationship. The tariff, designed to replace emergency duties struck down by the Supreme Court, could rise to 15 percent as Trump has threatened.

More concerning for South Korean companies is the planned Section 301 investigation. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer announced that these probes will cover "most major trading partners" and address discrimination against US tech firms and digital services. With Coupang investors already petitioning for an investigation into South Korean government treatment of the US-listed e-commerce giant, Seoul could find itself in Washington's crosshairs.

Ambassador Kang struck a diplomatic tone, saying her embassy would "support efforts to ensure that related consultations between South Korea and the U.S. can take place in an amicable atmosphere." But behind the diplomatic language lies a stark reality: South Korea must navigate an increasingly transactional relationship with its most important ally.

Alliance Management in the Trump Era

"The U.S. has consistently said that there is no change in its policy toward North Korea, and that it will closely communicate (with South Korea) before and after the fact to ensure that there won't be anything that will catch Seoul off guard," Kang noted. Yet such assurances ring hollow given Trump's track record of improvisation and his preference for personal diplomacy over institutional channels.

The challenge for South Korea is managing an alliance with a partner whose approach to North Korea oscillates between "fire and fury" and "love letters." Seoul cannot oppose US-North Korea dialogue—such engagement serves South Korean interests in reducing tensions. But it also cannot afford to be sidelined in discussions that directly affect its security.

This explains why South Korea maintains regular communication with "the U.S. National Security Council, the State Department and other agencies in Washington," as Kang emphasized. It's an insurance policy against diplomatic surprises.

The Middle Power Dilemma

Kang's "all possibilities" formulation reflects a broader challenge facing middle powers in today's multipolar world. South Korea cannot dictate terms to either the United States or North Korea, but neither can it afford to be passive. The solution lies in what diplomats call "prepared engagement"—staying ready to shape outcomes even when you cannot control the agenda.

This approach requires balancing competing imperatives: supporting alliance solidarity while protecting national interests, encouraging dialogue while preventing exclusion, and maintaining flexibility while projecting stability.