Xi's Congratulations to Kim: What China Really Wants from North Korea

Chinese President Xi Jinping congratulated Kim Jong-un on his reelection as general secretary of North Korea's ruling party, proposing to "open a new chapter" in bilateral relations. While the message appears diplomatically cordial, it reveals China's complex strategic calculations regarding its unpredictable neighbor.

Beyond Diplomatic Pleasantries

According to Xinhua, Xi praised Kim's reselection as reflecting the "high trust and wholehearted support" of North Korea's "party, government and people." He emphasized that "safeguarding, consolidating and developing China-DPRK relations remains an unwavering policy" of Beijing.

But beneath this diplomatic language lies China's practical dilemma. North Korea serves as both a strategic buffer zone and an unpredictable wild card. The regime's nuclear development and missile tests often contradict China's desire for regional stability.

The timing is particularly significant. Kim has just consolidated power at the party congress—a five-year ritual revived in 2016 after a 36-year hiatus. This gives Xi an opportunity to reset the relationship on China's preferred terms.

China's Vision: Reform Without Collapse

Xi's call for North Korea to "drive the socialist cause to constantly break new ground" isn't mere ideological rhetoric. It's a subtle pitch for Chinese-style economic reform—opening markets while maintaining political control.

China desperately wants North Korea to stabilize through economic development rather than nuclear brinksmanship. A economically dependent but stable North Korea serves China's interests far better than either a collapsed state or a nuclear-armed wildcard.

The numbers tell the story: North Korea depends on China for over 90% of its trade. Yet Kim has consistently prioritized nuclear development over economic opening, frustrating Beijing's attempts at influence.

What This Means for Global Powers

For Washington, China's approach to North Korea remains a source of frustration. The US wants Beijing to use its economic leverage to pressure Pyongyang on denuclearization. But China fears that excessive pressure could trigger regime collapse—creating a refugee crisis and potentially bringing US forces to China's border.

South Korea faces an even more complex calculation. Closer China-North Korea ties could strengthen Beijing's influence over any future reunification process. Yet North Korean stability, even under Chinese influence, might be preferable to continued nuclear threats.

European allies watch nervously as this dynamic unfolds, knowing that North Korean weapons technology often finds its way to other global trouble spots.