Jordan's Existential Crisis: When 'Alternative Homeland' Becomes Reality

The alarm bells in Amman started ringing long before Sunday's cabinet meeting in Jerusalem. But when Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich announced what he called a "settlement revolution" – transferring vast West Bank territories from military to civilian Israeli control – Jordan's worst nightmare crystallized into operational reality.

For decades, the "alternative homeland" theory – the idea that Jordan should become the Palestinian state – was dismissed in Hashemite diplomatic circles as fringe conspiracy thinking. Today, with 2.3 million Palestinians already comprising Jordan's largest demographic group and Israel's far-right government systematically erasing Palestinian presence in the West Bank, that theory has become Amman's most pressing existential threat.

The Bureaucratic Annexation

Sunday's Israeli cabinet decision represents more than administrative reshuffling. By transferring land registration authority from military administration to the Israeli Ministry of Justice, Israel is effectively treating the occupied West Bank as sovereign Israeli territory – bypassing the legal framework that has governed the territory since 1967.

The move erases Jordanian and Ottoman land registries that have protected Palestinian property rights for over a century, clearing the legal pathway for massive settlement expansion. For Jordan's political establishment, this bureaucratic annexation signals that the status quo is definitively dead.

Mamdouh al-Abbadi, Jordan's former deputy prime minister, sees the writing on the wall: "The transfer is no longer a threat; it is moving to execution. We are seeing the practical application... After this West Bank, the enemy will move to the East Bank, to Jordan."

The fear in Amman isn't just military invasion, but "soft transfer" – making life in the West Bank so unbearable that Palestinians gradually exodus toward Jordan. With Israeli military operations crushing refugee camps in Jenin and Tulkarem, and systematic property confiscation accelerating, this scenario is no longer hypothetical.

Military Mobilization and the 'Second Army'

Jordan's response has been swift and telling. In early February, the kingdom officially resumed compulsory military service after a 35-year hiatus, citing the need to "develop combat capabilities to keep pace with modern warfare methods" amid complex regional conditions.

Major-General (retired) Mamoun Abu Nowar warns that Israel's actions constitute an "undeclared war" on the kingdom. His proposed countermeasures are stark: "Jordan could declare the Jordan Valley a closed military zone to prevent displacement. This could lead to conflict and ignite the region."

Despite acknowledging military disparities, Abu Nowar dismisses the idea that Israel could easily overrun Jordan, citing the kingdom's unique social fabric: "The Jordanian interior, with its tribes and clans... this is a second army. Every village and every governorate will be a defensive line for Jordan."

The symbolism extends beyond military preparation. Israeli forces have created a new "Gilead Brigade" – named after the biblical mountainous region near Amman. For Jordanian strategists, this nomenclature signals Israeli ambitions extending beyond the West Bank into Jordan itself.

The Collapse of American Guarantees

Perhaps more troubling for Jordan than Israeli actions is the perceived abandonment by its oldest ally. For decades, the "Jordanian option" – maintaining Hashemite stability – was a cornerstone of US Middle East policy. That strategic wager appears to be collapsing.

Oraib al-Rantawi, director of the Al-Quds Center for Political Studies, identifies a fundamental "paradigm shift" that began during Trump's first presidency, when Washington moved its regional anchor from traditional allies like Jordan and Egypt to Gulf capitals, "dazzled by the shine of money and investments."

The Biden administration's approach offered little reassurance, and Trump's return has only deepened Amman's anxiety. "When put to the test – choosing between two allies – Washington will inevitably choose Israel without hesitation," al-Rantawi observes.

This abandonment has left Jordan in what al-Rantawi describes as a dependency trap: "Jordan is between two fires: the fire of [US] aid on one hand, and the fire of the threat... the existential Israeli threat to the entity and identity."

Diplomatic Miscalculations

Jordan's isolation isn't entirely external. Critics argue the kingdom has made strategic errors that weakened its position precisely when leverage was needed most. By maintaining exclusive ties with the weakened Palestinian Authority in Ramallah while shunning Hamas and other resistance factions, Jordan sacrificed regional influence.

Al-Rantawi contrasts Jordan's approach with Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey, which maintained Hamas relationships and thus retained negotiating power. "Cairo, Doha, and Ankara kept ties with Hamas, which strengthened their presence even with the US. Jordan gave up this role voluntarily... or due to miscalculation."

This diplomatic inflexibility, driven partly by internal fears of empowering Jordan's Muslim Brotherhood, has left the kingdom without alternative channels just when traditional alliances are failing.

Preparing for the Unthinkable

The language in Amman has shifted from diplomatic protests to survival preparation. Al-Abbadi calls for universal conscription: "We ask the state for compulsory conscription; everyone in Jordan must be able to bear arms."

He advocates cultural mobilization as well: "We must teach our children at least the Hebrew language, because he who knows the language of a people is safe from their evil."

Most significantly, Jordanian officials are preparing for the ultimate red line: forced Palestinian displacement. Al-Abbadi's prescription is uncompromising: "If there is a slow, camouflaged transfer... we must close the bridges immediately and without hesitation."

The King Hussein (Allenby) Bridge, the primary crossing between the West Bank and Jordan, has become more than a border checkpoint – it's the potential flashpoint of a regional crisis.