Japan's Security Awakening: Beyond American Dependence

Last month in Funabashi, Japan, drones filled the sky during a Self-Defense Forces training exercise. Not traditional tanks or fighter jets, but palm-sized unmanned aircraft that represent warfare's new reality. This wasn't just military practice—it was a signal that Japan, after 70 years of American dependence, is learning to defend itself.

The stark assessment from Masataka Okano, Japan's former National Security Adviser, reveals an uncomfortable truth: the international order built by America is crumbling, and America itself is doing the demolishing.

The Shifting Threat Landscape

Japan's security environment has transformed completely from a decade ago. China pursues Xi Jinping's "China Dream" of national rejuvenation, refusing to rule out force for Taiwan reunification. More concerning, Beijing has weaponized supply chains, controlling rare earth materials and AI technologies to deepen other nations' dependence.

The Ukraine war brought these threats to Asia's doorstep. Over 10,000 North Korean troops are reportedly fighting for Russia in Ukraine, gaining combat experience with drone technology. If North Korea masters these capabilities with Russian assistance, both Japan and South Korea could face military disadvantage.

The nature of warfare itself has changed. When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, tanks rolled toward Kyiv. Today, that tactic is obsolete. Drones dominate battlefields, and conflicts drag on for years rather than weeks.

The American Dilemma

The greater challenge isn't just evolving threats—it's that America, Japan's security guarantor, is transforming too. Trump's second administration has doubled down on "America First" policies, demanding allies shoulder greater security burdens while undermining multilateral institutions through tariff wars, Greenland claims, and UN withdrawals.

For Japan, this creates an impossible equation: How do you rely on extended deterrence from a partner that's dismantling the very system that makes deterrence credible? The triangular cooperation between China, North Korea, and Russia compounds this challenge, creating threats too complex for any single alliance to address.

Lessons for Regional Powers

Japan's response offers a template for middle powers navigating great power competition. Rather than choosing between American alignment and Chinese accommodation, Tokyo is building what defense analysts call "strategic hedging"—maintaining the US alliance while deepening partnerships with Australia, India, and European nations.

This isn't just about military cooperation. Japan recognizes that future conflicts will be fought across economic, technological, and information domains. Sony's semiconductor expertise, SoftBank's AI investments, and Japan's quantum research all become national security assets.

The drone revolution exemplifies this shift. While Ukraine's Brave1 platform rapidly matches startup innovations with battlefield needs, Japan lacks similar mechanisms. Companies can't easily obtain operational feedback, testing fields are limited, and regulations constrain experimentation. Japan is now racing to build these capabilities before the next conflict arrives.

The Deterrence Paradox

Japan's strategy reveals a fundamental paradox of modern deterrence. The goal isn't to fight wars but to prevent them by demonstrating the capacity for sustained resistance. This requires stockpiling critical materials, protecting infrastructure, and expanding ammunition production—all expensive preparations for conflicts leaders hope never to fight.

Yet the Ukraine experience shows why this investment matters. Russia expected a lightning victory but encountered a prepared defender with international backing. The war's prolongation serves as both warning and template: future conflicts may become grinding wars of attrition where industrial capacity matters as much as military technology.

For regional partners like South Korea, Australia, and even Taiwan, Japan's evolution poses both opportunities and challenges. Stronger Japanese capabilities could enhance regional deterrence, but they might also trigger arms races or complicate existing alliance structures.