Japan's First Female PM Takaichi Wins Supermajority in Historic Vote

Japan just rewrote its political playbook. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, the nation's first female leader, didn't just win Sunday's snap election—she crushed it. Her ruling coalition secured 311 seats out of 465 in the lower house, claiming the coveted two-thirds supermajority that could reshape Japan's post-war order.

The numbers tell a story of political dominance rarely seen in Japanese democracy. While voter turnout dropped to 28.18%, down 3.31 percentage points from the previous election, early voting hit record highs. The main opposition Centrist Reform Alliance collapsed from 167 seats to just 67, a political earthquake that sent shockwaves through Tokyo's corridors of power.

Markets Bet Big on Takaichi

Investors have been backing Takaichi since she became Liberal Democratic Party president in October. The Nikkei has surged 19% since then, closing at 54,253 on Friday. Monday's opening promises another rally, with futures pointing to a 5% jump as defense contractors and food companies—potential beneficiaries of her policies—see renewed interest.

Scott Bessent, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, called Takaichi a "great ally" with a "great relationship" with President Trump. When Japan is strong, "the U.S. is strong in Asia," he noted—a telling endorsement that signals America's comfort with Japan's rightward shift.

The Consumption Tax Gamble

Takaichi's boldest campaign promise—suspending consumption tax on food for two years—now moves from political theater to potential reality. "The overwhelming majority of parties favor lowering the consumption tax rate," she told NHK after the results. "We need to accelerate discussions on this major issue."

But here's the trillion-yen question: Can Japan afford it? The country's aging population demands ever-increasing social spending, while defense budgets are expanding amid regional tensions. A consumption tax cut might win hearts, but it could strain Japan's fiscal position just when the government needs revenue most.

The move puts Takaichi at odds with fiscal conservatives who've long argued that Japan's debt-to-GDP ratio—already among the world's highest—requires careful management, not populist tax cuts.

Constitutional Change on the Horizon

The real prize isn't tax policy—it's constitutional reform. That two-thirds majority gives Takaichi the power to propose amendments to Japan's pacifist constitution, something that's eluded previous leaders for decades. While she still needs upper house cooperation and a national referendum, the lower house hurdle is now cleared.

Takaichi has already stirred controversy by suggesting that a Chinese naval blockade of Taiwan could constitute a "survival-threatening situation" for Japan—language that could justify military action under collective self-defense. Her election victory gives weight to such hawkish positions, potentially reshaping Japan's role in regional security.

Global Reactions Split Along Predictable Lines

Western allies are celebrating. Trump endorsed Takaichi during the campaign, while Narendra Modi and Giorgia Meloni quickly offered congratulations. The message is clear: Japan's democratic allies welcome a leader who shares their concerns about China's rise.

Beijing sees it differently. Hu Xijin, former editor of the Global Times, warned that Takaichi's victory "cannot serve as leverage in dealing with China." He demanded she retract her Taiwan comments, highlighting how her election complicates an already tense relationship.

The silence from Seoul is equally telling. South Korea's government hasn't issued official congratulations, likely wary of Takaichi's potential visit to the controversial Yasukuni Shrine, which honors Japan's war dead including convicted war criminals.