Japan's Takaichi Eyes Constitutional Overhaul With New 'Supermajority

At Japan's Diet building Monday, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi stood before reporters with the confidence of someone holding a winning hand. "The time has come to fulfill our promise to the people," she declared. That promise? Amending Japan's 77-year-old constitution for the first time in its history.

Takaichi's landslide election victory delivered something no Japanese leader has possessed since the constitution's adoption: a two-thirds supermajority in the lower house. The political stars have aligned for what was once considered impossible—rewriting the pacifist charter that has defined postwar Japan.

The Article 9 Question

The prime target is Article 9, the war-renouncing clause that has kept Japan officially pacifist since 1947. But here's the paradox: Japan maintains one of the world's most capable militaries in its Self-Defense Forces (SDF), yet their constitutional status remains deliberately ambiguous.

Takaichi wants to end this legal limbo. "We cannot continue this situation where there's ongoing debate about whether the SDF is constitutional or unconstitutional," she has argued repeatedly. Recent polling shows 52% of Japanese now support explicitly recognizing the SDF in the constitution—a dramatic shift from decades past.

The timing isn't coincidental. North Korea's missile tests and China's military expansion have fundamentally altered Japan's threat perception. What once seemed like abstract constitutional theory now feels like urgent national security.

The Two-Step Dance

But political will alone won't suffice. Japan's amendment process requires a two-thirds majority in both houses of parliament, then approval by majority referendum. Takaichi has cleared the first hurdle; the second remains formidable.

Historically, Japanese voters have been skeptical of constitutional changes. The document's pacifist principles remain deeply embedded in national identity, despite shifting security realities. Brexit's unexpected outcome serves as a reminder that referendums can surprise even seasoned political observers.

Regional Ripple Effects

For Japan's neighbors, constitutional revision carries profound implications. South Korea faces a particularly complex calculus—enhanced Japanese defense capabilities could help counter North Korean and Chinese threats, but might also complicate territorial disputes like Dokdo/Takeshima.

Takaichi's close ties with Donald Trump add another dimension. Her push for expanded defense spending and weapons exports, backed by constitutional legitimacy, could reshape regional power dynamics. Defense contractors from Mitsubishi Heavy Industries to Kawasaki Heavy Industries are already positioning for expanded roles.

China, predictably, has condemned any moves toward Japanese "remilitarization." But Beijing's own military buildup provides Takaichi with her strongest argument for constitutional reform.

The Democratic Test

The ultimate question isn't whether Takaichi can navigate parliamentary procedures—it's whether she can convince ordinary Japanese citizens. Civil society groups remain deeply divided, with peace activists warning against abandoning Japan's "unique contribution to world peace."

Constitutional scholars are similarly split. Conservative academics argue for "realistic amendments" reflecting modern security needs, while progressive voices warn of betraying the constitution's pacifist spirit.