America's China Strategy: Going It Alone Won't Work

How do you counter a rising superpower? A former senior Biden administration official has a clear answer: you don't do it alone.

Working closely with like-minded countries remains the most effective strategy to counter an increasingly powerful China, the official argued—a stark contrast to Donald Trump's go-it-alone approach. But here's the uncomfortable truth: even the Biden team made critical mistakes that undermined their own strategy.

The Math Doesn't Lie

"Given the size and the immensity of the China challenge, the only way that the United States is going to be effective to meet that challenge is if we work with other countries," the former official stated.

The numbers back this up. China's economy has grown to over $17 trillion, accounting for roughly 18% of global GDP. It dominates global manufacturing, producing about 30% of the world's goods. The US economy, while still the largest at $25 trillion, can't single-handedly contain such an economic behemoth.

Trump's approach—tariff wars, unilateral sanctions, and "America First" rhetoric—may have felt satisfying to domestic audiences, but it often left allies confused and competitors united. Remember the chaos around Huawei bans? European allies were caught off guard, creating a patchwork of policies that China could exploit.

Biden's Multilateral Bet

The Biden administration took a different tack. They rebuilt NATO, launched the Quad with Australia, India, and Japan, and created AUKUS with Britain and Australia. The CHIPS Act wasn't just about American semiconductor manufacturing—it was designed to create a tech alliance excluding China.

This approach showed early promise. When Russia invaded Ukraine, the coordinated Western response demonstrated what unified action could achieve. Sanctions hit harder, military aid flowed faster, and diplomatic isolation was more complete than any single country could have managed.

But the former official's admission of "key mistakes" suggests this strategy wasn't executed flawlessly.

Where Biden Went Wrong

What were these critical errors? While the official didn't specify, several missteps stand out.

First, the chaotic Afghanistan withdrawal damaged trust with allies. European partners felt blindsided by unilateral decisions that affected their own troops and citizens. Second, mixed messaging on economic policy created confusion. How do you simultaneously compete with China on technology while cooperating on climate change?

Then there's the alliance management problem. Asking allies to choose sides—"you're either with us or against us"—worked during the Cold War when the economic stakes were lower. Today, Germany's largest trading partner is China. South Korea's Samsung and SK Hynix have massive investments in Chinese facilities. Forcing binary choices risks pushing allies away.

The Alliance Paradox

Here's the fundamental challenge: America needs allies to counter China, but those same allies have deep economic ties with China they're reluctant to sever.

Take Europe. The EU has declared China a "systemic rival," yet German car companies like BMW and Mercedes-Benz generate 36% of their global sales from China. France's LVMH relies on Chinese consumers for luxury goods growth. Britain, despite joining AUKUS, maintains significant financial ties to Chinese markets.

Asian allies face even starker contradictions. They want American security guarantees against Chinese military expansion but can't afford to lose Chinese markets. South Korea exports 25% of its goods to China. Australia's iron ore industry depends almost entirely on Chinese demand.

Trump 2.0: Back to Going Solo?

Now Trump's return threatens to unravel Biden's multilateral approach. Early signals suggest a return to transactional relationships and "America First" policies. Trump's team has already signaled tougher demands on allies—higher defense spending, more burden-sharing, fewer exceptions to anti-China measures.

This creates a strategic dilemma. If the former Biden official is right that cooperation is essential, then Trump's unilateral instincts could hand China a significant advantage. Beijing is already exploiting divisions between America and its allies, offering economic partnerships while the US demands economic sacrifices.

The Credibility Question

But there's a deeper issue: American credibility. If US policy swings dramatically every four years—multilateral cooperation under Biden, unilateral pressure under Trump—why should allies make long-term commitments that might be reversed?

China, by contrast, offers consistency. Its Belt and Road Initiative has remained stable across multiple leadership transitions. Its economic partnerships don't disappear with election cycles.