Why Europe Is Quietly Stepping Back From Taiwan

Marketa Pekarova Adamova stepped off the plane in Taipei with a different message than usual. The former Czech parliamentary leader, once a vocal Taiwan advocate, now spoke carefully about her new government's "desire to improve ties with China."

It's a telling shift. Across Europe, countries that boldly courted Taiwan in recent years are quietly reaching for their calculators, weighing the true cost of defying Beijing.

The Price of Principle

The numbers tell the story. Europe-Taiwan interactions have jumped fivefold in recent years, but the honeymoon may be ending. Czech Republic, once Taiwan's strongest European ally, offers a sobering case study.

When Czech Senate President Milos Vystrcil visited Taiwan in 2020 and declared "I am Taiwanese," Beijing's retaliation was swift and painful. Chinese contracts dried up, tourists disappeared, and Czech businesses found themselves locked out of the world's second-largest economy.

The damage was measurable and immediate. Czech exports to China dropped, and companies that had spent years building Chinese partnerships watched them crumble overnight.

Trump Factor Changes Everything

Now, with Trump back in the White House and his unpredictable approach to Taiwan, European leaders face a stark question: Are we prepared to confront China without American backup?

The calculation has shifted dramatically. During Trump's first term, his administration's Taiwan support was inconsistent. European officials worry that relying on Washington's protection while antagonizing Beijing could leave them exposed and isolated.

Taiwan's Internal Crisis Adds to European Doubts

Making matters worse, Taiwan's own political turmoil is raising red flags in European capitals. The ongoing budget crisis and legislative gridlock have foreign officials questioning whether Taiwan is a reliable partner.

"Political stability is a prerequisite for any meaningful relationship," one European diplomat noted privately. "If Taiwan can't govern itself effectively, how can we justify the risks we're taking?"

The €27 Trillion Question

At the heart of Europe's dilemma lies an uncomfortable truth: China's economy is simply too big to ignore. For Germany, China represents both the largest trading partner and the most crucial market for its automotive giants.

Lithuania offers a contrasting approach. Despite facing Chinese economic coercion, Vilnius has maintained its Taiwan relationship, betting that principled diplomacy pays off long-term. But Lithuania's economy is a fraction of Germany's, making such stands easier to sustain.

Meanwhile, countries like France and Italy are quietly recalibrating, seeking ways to maintain Taiwan ties without triggering Beijing's wrath.