America's Iran Strike Plans Hit a Wall: Running Out of Defensive Missiles

What if America's biggest constraint in attacking Iran isn't geography or nuclear facilities, but something far more mundane: running out of defensive missiles?

Ukraine Ate America's Arsenal

Defense officials are quietly acknowledging an uncomfortable truth. Two years of arming Ukraine has depleted US stockpiles of Patriot missiles and other air defense systems to dangerously low levels. These same weapons would be essential for protecting US bases and allies during any Iran conflict.

The math is stark. Lockheed Martin can produce roughly 550 Patriot missiles annually. Ukraine has fired over 1,000 in the past two years alone. Even elementary arithmetic shows the problem: demand is outstripping supply by a factor of two.

Defense Contractors' Billion-Dollar Gamble

Major defense contractors like Raytheon, Lockheed Martin, and Boeing face an impossible choice. Scaling up production requires billions in upfront investment, but what happens when conflicts end and demand crashes?

One defense executive, speaking anonymously, called it "the ultimate feast-or-famine business." The industry still remembers the massive layoffs following the Cold War's end. Nobody wants to build factories that might become white elephants.

The Ripple Effect on Strategy

This shortage isn't just about inventory—it's reshaping American military strategy. Pentagon planners must now factor munition sustainability into every operational scenario. The days of assuming unlimited firepower are over.

Consider the implications: If the US can't guarantee adequate missile defense for its Middle East bases, how credible are its deterrence threats? Adversaries are certainly taking notes.

Winners in the Shortage Economy

Defense stocks have surged as investors bet on increased military spending. But the real winners might be international arms manufacturers. South Korea's Hanwha Systems and European defense firms are suddenly fielding calls from Pentagon procurement officers.

The irony is palpable: America, the world's largest arms exporter, is shopping abroad for weapons to fill its own gaps.