China Holds Benchmark Rate for 7th Month, Signaling Caution on Stimulus

Policy Pause Amid Economic Headwinds

China held its benchmark lending rates steady for a seventh consecutive month on Monday, a move that signals policymakers' caution in rolling out more aggressive stimulus despite a fragile property sector and an uneven economic recovery.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced it would keep the one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) at 3.45%. The five-year LPR, a key reference for mortgages, was also held at 3.95%. According to Reuters, the decision was in line with the expectations of most economists.

Walking a Policy Tightrope

Beijing's hesitation highlights a critical dilemma: it's trying to support a sputtering economy without creating bigger problems. A rate cut could further pressure the yuan, which has already weakened amid significant capital outflows driven by a widening interest-rate gap with the United States.

"They're stuck between a rock and a hard place," one analyst noted. "Cutting rates might help the property sector in the short term, but it could trigger currency instability and hurt bank profitability, which is already under strain from bad property loans."

What's Next? Targeted Support Over Broad Stimulus

Instead of broad monetary easing like rate cuts, analysts now expect officials to lean more on targeted tools. This could include injecting liquidity into specific sectors or further cutting the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for banks to encourage lending, rather than a blanket reduction in borrowing costs.

The focus appears to be on maintaining stability while waiting for previous support measures to filter through the economy. However, with the property market showing few signs of a bottom, pressure for more forceful action will likely continue to build into the new year.