Amazon's $75M Melania Bet: Box Office Hit or Political Hedge?

$75 million invested, $7 million earned opening weekend. By any traditional metric, "Melania" looks like a spectacular flop. But Amazon's massive bet on a Melania Trump documentary might not be about box office returns at all.

Numbers Don't Add Up, But Maybe That's the Point

Brett Ratner's "Melania" pulled in $7.04 million over its opening weekend, landing third at the box office behind "Send Help" ($20 million) and "Iron Lung" ($17.8 million). While the documentary exceeded pre-release estimates of $3-5 million, it's nowhere near covering Amazon's investment: $40 million for acquisition rights plus $35 million for marketing.

The acquisition process itself raises eyebrows. Amazon outbid Disney by $26 million—an astronomical gap that veteran film executive Ted Hope called suspicious. "How can it not be equated with currying favor or an outright bribe?" Hope told The New York Times. "How can that not be the case?"

Hope, who worked at Amazon from 2015 to 2020, noted the documentary "has to be the most expensive documentary ever made that didn't involve music licensing." For context, most successful documentaries cost under $10 million to produce and acquire.

A Controversial Return and Industry Pushback

The film marks Brett Ratner's first directorial effort since 2017, when multiple women accused him of sexual harassment and misconduct (allegations he has denied). His return to Hollywood through a high-profile political documentary signals either remarkable rehabilitation or strategic calculation.

Industry sentiment appears mixed at best. Two-thirds of the film's New York crew requested not to be formally credited—an unusual move that speaks to internal discomfort with the project. Critics weren't screened the film in advance, and subsequent reviews have been brutal: 7% on Metacritic and 10% on Rotten Tomatoes.

New York Times critic Manohla Dargis described it as "a very circumscribed and carefully stage-managed chronicle of Mrs. Trump's day-to-day life" during the 20 days before President Trump's 2025 inauguration.

The Real Strategy: Streaming and Influence

Amazon MGM's head of domestic theatrical distribution Kevin Wilson framed the theatrical release as "an important first step in what we see as a long-tail lifecycle." The real play appears to be Prime Video, where the documentary will have "significant life" according to Wilson.

This strategy makes more sense when viewed through a political lens. Apple CEO Tim Cook attended a White House preview screening—a signal that tech leaders are actively engaging with the new administration. For Amazon, which faces potential antitrust scrutiny, tax policy changes, and labor regulation under Trump, a $75 million investment might be cheap insurance.

Big Tech's New Influence Playbook

Traditional corporate lobbying involves hiring K Street firms and making campaign contributions. Amazon's approach represents something different: using entertainment content as a vehicle for political relationship-building. It's harder to track, more culturally palatable, and potentially more effective.

Other tech giants are watching closely. Meta, Google, and Apple all face regulatory challenges that could intensify under the new administration. If Amazon's cultural diplomacy proves successful, expect more tech companies to invest in politically adjacent content.

The implications extend beyond politics. When tech platforms that control content distribution also produce politically motivated content, questions arise about editorial independence and algorithmic promotion. Will Prime Video's recommendation engine favor "Melania" over competing documentaries?