Left Out of Pax Silica: Can India Forge Its Own Tech Future?

The U.S. has launched a new semiconductor alliance, 'Pax Silica', but a key player is missing: India. Coming on the heels of a temporary truce between President Trump and China's Xi Jinping in Busan, this move signals a new, colder phase of techno-geopolitics. The 'Busan truce' isn't an end to the U.S.-China contest but a tactical pause for both sides to consolidate supply chains and strengthen technological defenses. For countries like India, the lesson is stark: achieving 'strategic autonomy' is no longer optional, it's a prerequisite for survival.

The Widening Semiconductor Gap

In semiconductors, India is entirely dependent on imports. The government's Semiconductor Mission provides 50 percent co-funding for private firms, with one fabrication unit (fab) and five packaging plants currently under construction. A key project is the Tata Group's venture with Taiwan's PSMC, expected to produce 50,000 wafers per monthby early 2026. However, this pales in comparison to China, which operates 44 fabs with 22 more under construction, and South Korea with 21 operational units. With initial funds nearly depleted, expediting a 'Semiconductor Mission 2.0' is critical.

Dependencies Beyond Silicon: Pharma and Batteries

India's vulnerabilities extend far beyond chips. Despite being the world's third-largest pharmaceutical producer by volume, it remains heavily reliant on China for active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs). This dependence remained above 70 percent in 2024, down only slightly from a high of 85 percent in 2014. The electric vehicle (EV) sector faces a similar issue, with more than 85 percent of lithium-ion batteries being imported. India's investment in EV-related R&D remains dismal when benchmarked against global leaders like China's CATL and BYD.

The Quantum Race and a Massive Investment Gulf

In the race for quantum technologies, India's efforts are nascent. The Tata Institute of Fundamental Research has developed a 7-qubit system, while global players are leagues ahead. IBM recently unveiled its 1,121-qubit 'Condor' processor, and China has a 504-qubit chip. The real story, however, is the funding gap. In 2022, China's public investment in quantum tech was a staggering $15.3 billion, miles ahead of the USA ($3.7 billion) and India ($1.0 billion). At this rate, it's hard to imagine how India will ever catch up.