A 15-Year Pledge and the 10% Deadlock: Ukraine Peace Deal Security Guarantees 2026

They've shaken hands, but the fists remain clenched. French President Emmanuel Macron is hosting Volodymyr Zelensky and leaders from over 30 countries in Paris today, January 6, 2026, to hammer out security guarantees that could finally silence the guns in Ukraine.

The 10% Hurdle in Ukraine Peace Deal Security Guarantees 2026

The stakes couldn't be higher. While Zelensky claims that 90% of the peace plan is agreed upon after talks with Donald Trump, the remaining 10% is a minefield of territorial concessions. Russia currently holds 75% of Donetsk and 99% of Luhansk, and Moscow shows no signs of retreating from its goal of full control.

To reassure Kyiv, Washington has reportedly offered a 15-year security guarantee. US mediators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are on the ground in Paris to facilitate the discussion. However, the exact timeline for implementing these guarantees remains a sticking point for European allies who fear a US pullback.

Venezuela and Greenland: A Shadow Over the Table

The talks aren't happening in a vacuum. Recent US military action in Venezuela to seize Nicolás Maduro has rattled international norms. Compounding the tension is Trump's renewed insistence on annexing Greenland. Danish PM Mette Frederiksen warned that such a move would be the "end of the trans-Atlantic alliance," casting a long shadow over the NATO unity required for any Ukraine deal.