Ukraine's Fourth Anniversary Dilemma: Negotiation Table or Battlefield?

Two days before the fourth anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion, Ukraine is sending two contradictory messages simultaneously. While President Zelensky announced preparations for the next round of US-Russia trilateral negotiations, Ukrainian forces struck deep into Russian territory, hitting military facilities with domestically-produced cruise missiles.

Battlefield Messages Before Diplomacy

Ukraine's General Staff reported that homegrown Flamingo cruise missiles hit a Russian ballistic missile plant in the Udmurtia region and a gas facility in Samara. This escalation appears strategically timed—demonstrating military capability ahead of potential peace talks.

The message is clear: Ukraine negotiates from strength, not desperation.

Russian attacks continued unabated. Drone strikes on Sumy region killed four people, including a 17-year-old boy, while Zaporizhia attacks claimed a 77-year-old man. Particularly notable was Russia's strike on US snack company Mondelez's facility in Sumy, prompting Ukraine's foreign minister to declare that Russia was "targeting American business interests in Europe."

Diplomatic Preparations Amid War

Despite ongoing hostilities, Zelensky held discussions with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte about upcoming trilateral negotiations. "In many areas, our views align," Zelensky stated, emphasizing daily efforts "so that the next round of negotiations can deliver results for Ukraine, results for peace."

Crucially, Zelensky stressed coordination with European partners to ensure the EU "is involved in all processes and grows only stronger." This reflects Ukraine's strategic pivot toward Europe as US support under the Trump administration remains uncertain.

Energy Warfare Opens New Front

A new battleground has emerged: energy infrastructure. Slovakia's Prime Minister Robert Fico threatened to cut emergency electricity supplies to Ukraine unless Kyiv resumed Russian oil transit through the Druzhba pipeline. Hungary escalated further, vowing to block a €90 billion EU loan to Ukraine for the same reason.

Since January 27, Russian oil shipments to Hungary and Slovakia have been severed. Ukraine blames Russian drone strikes on pipeline equipment; Slovakia and Hungary point fingers at Ukrainian negligence.

Poland's Prime Minister Donald Tusk sarcastically criticized Hungary's move: "Guess who's happy"—an obvious reference to Moscow's satisfaction with EU division.

International Solidarity and Growing Cracks

Ahead of the anniversary, solidarity rallies took place in Washington, Paris, and Prague. Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo made her sixth wartime visit to Kyiv, receiving Ukraine's highest civilian honor.

Yet concerning developments emerged from Africa. Ukraine's foreign minister condemned Russia's alleged recruitment of Kenyans and other Africans, calling it reminiscent of "the worst memories of colonial attitudes from the past."

Meanwhile, former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson suggested sending "peaceful ground forces" to demonstrate support—a proposal that highlights ongoing debates about Western military involvement.

The Negotiation Paradox

Ukraine faces a fundamental contradiction: How do you prepare for peace while escalating military action? Zelensky's dual approach—striking Russian facilities while discussing trilateral talks—reflects this strategic complexity.

The timing matters. As the fourth anniversary approaches, domestic and international pressure for diplomatic solutions intensifies. Yet Ukraine's recent strikes suggest Zelensky believes military pressure remains essential for meaningful negotiations.