Ukraine Peace Talks Stalled as War Nears Fourth Anniversary

With just three days until the fourth anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, peace remains as elusive as ever. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told reporters Friday that "no positive movement has been made regarding negotiations over the future of Ukrainian land occupied by Russia."

The War Continues Unabated

While diplomats struggle at negotiating tables, the battlefield tells a different story. Russian forces launched 128 drones and one ballistic missile toward Ukraine overnight Thursday. Ukrainian air defenses intercepted 107 drones, but attacks still killed three people at a warehouse in Malynivka, Kharkiv region, with rescuers pulling two additional bodies from the rubble.

Ukraine struck back across Russian border regions. In Belgorod, Ukrainian drone attacks killed two people in a car and another man in a separate village strike. A hospital in Russia's Bryansk region also came under drone fire, though no casualties were reported there.

The targeting of civilian infrastructure on both sides reflects how this conflict has evolved beyond traditional military objectives, raising questions about the rules of engagement in modern warfare.

Allied Unity Shows Cracks

French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer will chair a "Coalition of the Allies" video conference on February 24th, marking the invasion's anniversary. Yet beneath diplomatic solidarity, tensions are emerging among Ukraine's supporters.

Hungary has threatened to block a €90 billion ($106 billion) EU loan to Ukraine over energy disputes. Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto accused Ukraine of violating the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement by blocking oil transit through the Druzhba pipeline. "We will not give in to this blackmail," he declared on social media.

This dispute highlights a fundamental challenge: how can allies maintain unity when their immediate national interests diverge?

The Energy Chess Game

Energy has become both weapon and vulnerability in this conflict. The European Commission authorized Germany to take trusteeship of sanctioned Russian oil giant Rosneft's German assets, including the PCK Schwedt refinery that supplies most of Berlin's fuel. Meanwhile, the US Treasury extended sanctions waivers for Serbia's Russian-owned oil firm NIS until March 20th.

These seemingly contradictory moves reflect the complex reality of disentangling European energy systems from Russian supply chains while maintaining economic stability.

Ukrainian forces targeted the electrical grid in Russian-occupied Zaporizhia, leaving the northwest region largely without power. The fighting near the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant – under Russian control since 2022 – continues to raise concerns about nuclear safety in active war zones.

The Negotiation Paradox

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Friday he "cannot yet confirm when and where" new Ukraine talks will occur, despite reports suggesting Geneva as a venue. This uncertainty reflects both sides' reluctance to show weakness through premature diplomatic engagement.

Both Moscow and Kyiv appear to believe military gains will strengthen their negotiating positions. But four years of conflict have shown that battlefield victories don't automatically translate to diplomatic breakthroughs.

The question facing world leaders isn't just how to end this war, but whether the international system can handle many more years of this kind of prolonged, high-stakes stalemate.