Trump's Unintended Gift: Europe's Quiet March to Independence

74%—that's the European Union's approval rating, hitting a record high. For an organization notorious for bureaucratic gridlock and member state squabbles, this surge seems counterintuitive. But here's the paradox: crisis is making Europe stronger.

The EU isn't transforming because its problems have disappeared. It's changing because the past four years have delivered an unrelenting series of existential threats, culminating in Donald Trump repositioning America as something close to an antagonist.

When Protection Becomes Uncertainty

Russia's invasion of Ukraine was the wake-up call. Now Trump's signals that America's NATO commitments are essentially fiction have created a new reality: Europe can no longer count on American cooperation or protection. This vulnerability has triggered something unprecedented—a quiet revolution in how the EU exercises power.

In May, for the first time in its history, the EU decided to finance defense spending across all 27 member states by taking on EU-wide debt. This wasn't just about money; it was about recognizing that individual countries' efforts—even dramatic ones—weren't enough.

Consider the math: European states have doubled their defense spending since 2015, with Germany planning to invest roughly $77 billion over five years. By 2030, Germany's defense budget could be the world's third largest. But countries already carrying heavy debt loads can't match this pace, and confronting Vladimir Putin without American backing requires everyone to rearm.

The SAFE Revolution

Enter the Security Action for Europe (SAFE) fund—an extraordinary instrument prepared to fund up to $178 billion in continental defense upgrades. But SAFE isn't just about spending; it's about reshaping Europe's entire defense ecosystem.

For the first time, Europe will essentially protect its defense industry. "European preference" was long dismissed as a French fantasy, but that was when buying U.S. weapons was a premium allies paid for American protection. Now that Trump has signaled the deal is off, European states using SAFE funding must procure more European-made weapons and parts than not.

This priority extends to Ukraine aid too. The recently agreed $107 billion debt-financed Ukraine package restricts Kyiv to purchasing European-made arms wherever possible. Europe isn't just defending itself—it's building an industrial base to sustain that defense.

Breaking the Dependence Chain

The shift runs deeper than defense procurement. Germany currently plans to spend only 8% of its rearmament budget on U.S. arms. It's even developing its own satellite communications network to replace Starlink. Most remarkably, European capitals are addressing the core of their dependence: the American nuclear umbrella.

Germany and Sweden are in talks with France and the United Kingdom about a potential European nuclear deterrent. Poland and the Netherlands have expressed interest in joining. This isn't just military planning—it's Europe imagining itself as a truly independent power.

The economic benefits are already visible. In equity markets, homegrown defense firms outperformed America's top seven tech stocks last year. Germany's Rheinmetall will soon produce more artillery shells than the entire U.S. defense industry. Success breeds ambition: EU leaders are considering applying "buy European" provisions to digital services and green technologies.

Decision-Making at Crisis Speed

Perhaps most crucially, Europe is changing how it makes decisions. The unanimity requirement that former German Chancellor Angela Merkel fiercely defended is being abandoned as the price of geopolitical relevance.

In December, the EU invoked emergency legal provisions to bypass unanimity and freeze Russian assets indefinitely. The same month, it approved the Ukraine package without unanimous approval, pushing Hungary, Slovakia, and Czechia to opt out rather than veto.

Each precedent makes the next one easier. With every "first," others become thinkable.

The Fragility Factor

Europe isn't yet fully autonomous, and transformation isn't guaranteed. A super-election year looms in 2027, when France, Italy, Spain, and Poland will all hold votes. Far-right victories—especially in France and Poland—could derail the current trajectory.

But here's the twist: that record 74% EU approval rating suggests something fundamental has shifted. Young far-right politicians may understand that returning to pure nation-state politics means choosing powerlessness in a world of superpowers.