Republicans Push Voter ID Laws That Could Hurt Their Own Base

Last month, as the House passed the SAVE America Act, a familiar political theater played out. Republicans pushed another voter ID bill at Donald Trump's urging, claiming it would prevent fraud and noncitizen voting. Democrats opposed it, arguing that voter fraud is negligible and the law targets their supporters.

But something strange is happening beneath the surface. The traditional politics of voter ID—where such restrictions primarily hurt Democrats—flipped in 2024. Now Republicans are championing a bill that would likely disenfranchise more of their own voters than their opponents'. Meanwhile, Democrats who call Trump an existential threat to democracy refuse on principle to let Republicans sabotage themselves.

It's a perfect illustration of how quickly electoral coalitions can shift—and how slowly politicians adapt to new realities.

When "When We Vote, We Win" Stopped Working

For decades, the math was simple. In fall 1998, Democratic volunteers handed out leaflets to Black churchgoers in New York reading "When We Vote, We Win." The slogan captured conventional wisdom: higher turnout helps Democrats, the party of the downtrodden.

The Democratic coalition was disproportionately young, lower-income, less educated, and nonwhite—demographics less likely to vote and more likely to be screened out by voting restrictions. Republican voters were whiter, older, and richer, making them more likely to vote and jump through bureaucratic hoops.

This reality motivated Democratic get-out-the-vote efforts for decades. Republicans, rather than openly opposing voting, found their own civic good: election integrity. Starting with Indiana's 2005 restrictive voter ID law, upheld by the Supreme Court in 2008, more states followed suit.

The pattern held through 2020. Trump consistently won among voters who had participated in the previous four election cycles but lost with everyone else. Kamala Harris accordingly held "When we vote, we win" rallies in 2024.

Then November flipped the script entirely.

The Great Reversal

Trump won the popular vote for the first time, performing better with sporadic voters than consistent ones. Harris won educated, wealthy, and well-informed voters. Her coalition was whiter than Joe Biden's had been. Trump captured the downtrodden—with some of his biggest gains among young people, Latinos, and immigrants.

Democratic analyst David Shor found that Democrats dominated among voters whose political identity was very important to them. If every eligible voter had participated, Shor concluded, Trump would have won by five points instead of 1.5.

Since 2024, Democrats have excelled in special elections dominated by highly engaged voters. Liberal commentators have started noticing. Matt Yglesias wrote a post titled "When People Don't Vote, Democrats Win." One liberal PAC co-founder changed his X bio to "Voter-ID Democrat."

A Bill Designed to Backfire

The current Republican voter ID push seems almost custom-designed to disenfranchise their own supporters. The SAVE America Act requires not just voter ID when voting, but proof of citizenship when registering. This sets an extraordinarily high bar.

Only half of Americans own passports, and just five states issue IDs proving citizenship. Everyone else needs an American birth certificate matching their ID or naturalization papers. Married women—who broke for Trump in 2024—whose surnames no longer match their documentation would need additional proof of name change.

Democratic voters would clear this bar much more easily. A recent YouGov poll showed 64% of Harris voters reported having valid passports compared to 55% of Trump voters. According to Secure Democracy USA, the 13 states where people are least likely to have passports all voted for Trump. Passports are especially rare in rural counties where Republicans dominate.

Political Amnesia in Action

Yet Republican officials seem to believe the opposite. Georgia Rep. Buddy Carter claimed Democrats "oppose this bill because it chips away at their voting base." During his State of the Union address, Trump argued Democrats don't support the bill because "their policy is so bad that the only way they can get elected is to cheat."

One possibility: Republican legislators genuinely don't realize the law could disenfranchise more of their voters. Maybe they think coalitions haven't changed much since 2016, or perhaps they sincerely believe the Trump-era claim that illegal immigrants vote en masse for Democrats.

Rep. Andy Harris of Maryland, chair of the House Freedom Caucus, told reporters his support had nothing to do with "whether it hurts or helps any party." He noted that voter ID requirements poll well—and he's right. David Shor's data firm found requiring IDs and proof of citizenship was among the most popular of 190 policy proposals they tested.

The Principle Problem

Democrats face their own contradiction. Accustomed to fighting voter suppression, they've slipped back into familiar grooves. "The only hope Republicans have of holding onto power is to rig the election before it starts," California Sen. Alex Padilla said. Minority Leader Chuck Schumer described the bill as "federalizing Jim Crow."

The rhetoric has always been overheated. Academic research finds small effects on turnout with no consistent partisan impact. States like New Hampshire and Arizona already require proof of citizenship for registration. To call these states "rigged" would be absurd—New Hampshire has voted Democratic for president since 2004.

But Democrats have another reason to oppose the bill: principle. Oregon Sen. Jeff Merkley said even if the bill helped Democrats, he'd oppose it because "every citizen should have appropriate opportunity to participate in elections, regardless of who benefits."

Even as Democrats embrace aggressive gerrymandering, supporting legislation that prevents eligible voters from casting ballots may be a line they won't cross. The party has focused on expanding voting access since the civil rights era. What principle would remain if they abandoned that for electoral advantage?

The Bigger Picture

Electoral coalition changes can be swift and unpredictable. Some evidence suggests disengaged voters are drifting back left. CNN reported that people who didn't vote in 2024 plan to support Democratic congressional candidates by a 16-point margin in upcoming midterms.

The general trend shows Black, Latino, and young voters—all of whom swung to Trump—now swinging away. Even so, the Democratic base remains disproportionately well-educated and politically engaged. Any procedure increasing this demographic's electoral share would likely give Democrats an edge they could sorely use given the unfavorable Senate map.