The Rohingya Crisis Has Become Southeast Asia's Security Nightmare

What happens when a humanitarian crisis becomes a security threat? The answer is unfolding across Southeast Asia, where nearly 1 million Rohingya refugees have become pawns in a dangerous game that extends far beyond Myanmar's borders.

The Cox's Bazar refugee camps in Bangladesh, once symbols of international compassion, now serve as recruitment zones for armed groups and corridors for weapons trafficking. What began as a mass exodus from persecution in 2017 has metastasized into a complex transnational network of criminality, militancy, and corruption that threatens regional stability.

Power Vacuum Creates New Dangers

The collapse of Myanmar's military control in Rakhine State has fundamentally altered the strategic landscape. The Arakan Army (AA), driven by Rakhine ultranationalism, has seized large swaths of territory, effectively dismantling the junta's authority across western Myanmar.

Between 2023 and 2024, key strongholds including Sittwe's Western Command, Mrauk U, Thandwe, and Maungdaw fell to the AA. For Bangladesh, this represents a paradigm shift: instead of dealing with official military channels, Dhaka now faces a frontier controlled by a non-state actor whose ideology is deeply suspicious of both Rohingyas and Bangladesh itself.

The junta's response has been predictably cynical. Groups like the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) and Rohingya Solidarity Organisation (RSO), once branded as insurgents, are now being armed and legitimized as proxies against the AA. This militarization of statelessness has drawn the Rohingyas deeper into Myanmar's internal conflict, transforming victims into combatants.

When Refugee Camps Become Shadow States

Inside Cox's Bazar, reports of forced recruitment, abductions, extortion, and disappearances have multiplied dramatically. Young men are coerced into crossing the border to fight in Rakhine, often in conflicts wholly unrelated to their struggle for safety and citizenship.

Families face a cruel double bind: intimidation from armed factions seeking recruits while being stigmatized as potential extremists by authorities and host communities. This has transformed the humanitarian crisis into what security analysts call a "transnational security dilemma."

The so-called "Mission Harmony" agreement among competing Rohingya factions in 2024 was marketed as a peace initiative but effectively formalized cooperation among armed groups. While overt clashes decreased, criminality surged. Community leaders became gang brokers, religious schools turned into recruitment centers, and illegal industries expanded.

Humanitarian monitors recorded over 400 major security incidents in the latter half of 2024 alone. Nearly 1 million refugees now live under a system where violence flourishes in the absence of meaningful government oversight.

Bangladesh's Border Guard Under Fire

At the heart of Bangladesh's deteriorating border security lies the Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB). Once respected as a disciplined force, it now faces accusations of bribery, collusion, and involvement in trafficking and arms smuggling.

The AA has repeatedly accused certain BGB units of participating in illicit cross-border activities—charges Dhaka rejects but cannot fully dispel. The interim government led by Dr. Muhammad Yunus took office amid expectations of transparency and reform but faced mounting criticism for its inertia.

Despite bold declarations on humanitarian responsibility, the government hesitated to confront armed criminal networks in the camps. This inaction has allowed the crisis to metastasize into a regional security threat that extends far beyond Bangladesh's borders.

Malaysia: The New Epicenter

Malaysia hosts the largest Rohingya population in Southeast Asia—an estimated 200,000 refugees—and is increasingly concerned about security implications. ARSA, designated a terrorist organization by Malaysia's Ministry of Home Affairs, has become the most active Rohingya militant group within the country.

ARSA's operations include widespread extortion of Rohingya communities across peninsular Malaysia. More alarmingly, 2024 saw Rohingya refugees returning from Malaysia to Myanmar to join ARSA's ranks—a reverse migration that signals the group's growing influence.

Support for ARSA among segments of the Rohingya diaspora is visible on social media platforms including Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube, where pro-ARSA channels disseminate propaganda. These online ecosystems reinforce ideological ties and facilitate recruitment, with implications for Malaysia's security and regional counterterrorism efforts.

The Triangle of Instability

The Rohingya crisis has evolved into a multi-layered security network spanning South and Southeast Asia. Criminal syndicates, militant groups, and trafficking networks now move people, weapons, and money across porous borders with alarming efficiency.

The AA's rise, the junta's use of Rohingya proxies, and Bangladesh's governance challenges have created what analysts describe as a "triangle of instability." Regional waters have become corridors for smuggling and human trafficking, while camps designed for refuge have become nodes in this broader criminal network.

Weak institutions, corruption, and political indecision across multiple states have allowed these networks to flourish. The new reality demands coordinated regional responses, but political will remains fragmented.

Beyond Humanitarian Solutions

Bangladesh's new government faces difficult decisions. The country was once praised for sheltering nearly 1 million refugees, but international sympathy is fading as the crisis evolves into a geopolitical and security issue.

Three priorities emerge: reforming the BGB through investigation and removal of corrupt officers; demilitarizing refugee camps through restructured international support that prioritizes community policing; and engaging pragmatically with the AA as the new power reality in western Myanmar.

Malaysia, meanwhile, may need to consider assembling a "Rohingya White Paper" to systematically address how the issue has morphed from a migration challenge into a national security concern. The refugee population continues to grow, and policymakers must ensure that a Cox's Bazar-like situation doesn't emerge domestically.