Bangladesh's Election Test: Can an Exile Lead a Nation?

What happens when a politician returns home after 17 years of exile to claim power? In Bangladesh, we're about to find out.

Tarique Rahman, chairman of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), has emerged as a frontrunner in Thursday's general election after returning from London exile on December 25. Following his mother Khaleda Zia's death in December, Rahman now leads the party his father founded—but his homecoming has raised as many questions as it has answered.

From London to the Campaign Trail

The symbolism was unmistakable. At a midnight rally in Gazipur, tens of thousands waited hours to hear Rahman speak. For BNP leaders, the turnout proved their party had survived 15 years of suppression under ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's government and could still mobilize supporters.

With Hasina's Awami League banned from politics by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus's interim administration, the BNP faces its clearest path to power in decades. Its main rival is Jamaat-e-Islami, an Islamist party allied with the National Citizen Party (NCP), formed by student leaders who toppled Hasina in 2024.

Rahman's presence carries deep political DNA. As the son of assassinated military leader General Ziaur Rahman and former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, he embodies the BNP's founding legacy. But converting symbolic authority into organizational control has proven more challenging than expected.

The Discipline Problem

Rahman's first test came from within his own ranks. 92 candidates are running against official BNP nominees in 79 constituencies—a level of internal rebellion that Al Masud Hasanuzzaman, a political science professor at Jahangirnagar University, calls "higher than at any previous time."

More troubling, a Transparency International Bangladesh study found that 91 percent of political violence since August 5, 2024, involved BNP activists. This statistic raises fundamental questions about Rahman's ability to control his party.

"This is a major weakness," political analyst Dilara Chowdhury told Al Jazeera. "He has not been able to establish discipline within the party so far. Rebel candidates have emerged and, in many cases, they are openly challenging the central leadership."

The contrast is stark: while Rahman draws massive crowds, his party struggles with basic organizational coherence.

Promises Without Preparation

Rahman's public messaging has also drawn scrutiny. At a rally in Faridpur, he claimed the region produces "large quantities of soya beans"—a statement quickly debunked, as soya cultivation is concentrated in Bangladesh's coastal belt, not Faridpur.

Another viral moment came when critics mocked his pledge to declare Chattogram as the country's "commercial capital"—a promise recycled from the 2001-2006 BNP government.

"He has taken charge of the campaign, but there is very little homework," Chowdhury observed. "He ends up saying many things that are simply wrong, like claiming he will plant 500 million trees. That is not a credible proposition."

His flagship "family card" policy—providing monthly cash to women and the unemployed—faces similar credibility gaps. "Once you talk about family cards, the obvious question is where the money will come from," Chowdhury said.

The Youth Perception Challenge

Perhaps most critically, Rahman faces skepticism from younger voters who never experienced BNP rule. Khan Sobayel bin Rafiq, a political commentator and former military officer, points to a generational divide.

"Young voters aged between 18 and 26 did not witness BNP rule," Sobayel explained. "Many of them have internalized the idea that BNP represents corruption and 'chandabazi' [extortion]. The party has not been able to decisively turn that perception around."

Rahman's nomination of 23 loan defaulters as candidates hasn't helped his anti-corruption messaging. In a televised address Monday, he acknowledged past BNP failures and pledged a hard line on corruption, but the damage to his credibility may already be done.

The Exile's Dilemma

A BNP insider, speaking anonymously, revealed another challenge: Rahman's isolation from ground realities. "He brought his close aides from London, who, like him, had been away from Bangladesh for 17 years," the leader said. "Although he is traveling all over Bangladesh, he remains isolated from ground reality."

Thomas Kean of the International Crisis Group believes Bangladesh is unlikely to return to Hasina-era repression, but warns that "allegations of extortion and criminal activity—whether accurate or not—have damaged the party's image, particularly among younger voters."

The question isn't just whether Rahman can win—it's whether he can govern a Bangladesh that has fundamentally changed since he left.