Xi's Taiwan Warning to Trump Signals New Red Lines

$11 billion. That's how much arms the Trump administration approved for Taiwan in December. It's also why Xi Jinping made Taiwan the centerpiece of his call with Donald Trump yesterday.

The Call That Wasn't Just About Trade

On the surface, Wednesday's phone conversation was "excellent" and "long and thorough," according to Trump. But beneath the diplomatic pleasantries lay a stark warning from Beijing's leader: "The United States must handle the issue of arms sales to Taiwan with prudence."

The timing wasn't coincidental. Xi spoke with Trump just hours after holding a virtual meeting with Vladimir Putin, where both leaders celebrated strengthening China-Russia ties. The sequence sent a clear message: China has options.

Trump dangled economic incentives, mentioning that China was considering increasing US soybean purchases from 12 million to 20 million tonnes. Classic carrot-and-stick diplomacy, but Xi's focus remained laser-sharp on Taiwan.

Why Taiwan Matters More Than Ever

For China, Taiwan isn't just territory—it's legitimacy. The Communist Party has staked its credibility on "reunification," and Xi has made it clear that force remains on the table. For the US, Taiwan represents something equally fundamental: the principle that democracies shouldn't be absorbed by authoritarian neighbors.

This collision of core interests explains why the issue has become so intractable. America's "strategic ambiguity"—formally recognizing Beijing while practically supporting Taipei—worked when China was weak. But as Beijing's military capabilities grow, that delicate balance becomes harder to maintain.

The December arms package included advanced rocket launchers, self-propelled howitzers, and various missiles. These aren't just weapons; they're symbols of American commitment that Beijing sees as direct challenges to its sovereignty claims.

Trump's Balancing Act

Trump's approach reveals the contradictions in US-China relations. He's simultaneously selling weapons to Taiwan and planning an April visit to Beijing. It's dealmaking meets geopolitics—a combination that worked in business but faces severe tests in international relations.

The president's Truth Social post emphasized his "extremely good" personal relationship with Xi, suggesting he believes personal rapport can override structural tensions. But Xi's warning suggests otherwise. When he spoke of "equality, respect and mutual benefit," it sounded less like partnership language and more like a demand for American restraint.

The Broader Stakes

This isn't just about Taiwan. It's about whether rising powers and established ones can coexist without conflict. Xi's call came as Western leaders from Keir Starmer to others have been visiting Beijing, hoping to reset relations with the world's second-largest economy.

But reset to what? The fundamental disagreement over Taiwan hasn't changed. If anything, it's intensified as both sides have hardened their positions. China won't abandon its reunification goals, and the US won't abandon its commitment to Taiwan's defense.

The conversation also touched on Ukraine, Iran, and energy purchases—showing how interconnected these issues have become. China's support for Russia complicates its relationship with the US, while America's support for Taiwan complicates its relationship with China.