Congo's Fragile Peace Shatters as Rebels Seize Key City, Defying US-Brokered Deal

Hopes for an end to a conflict that has displaced nearly a million people in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) were shattered this month after M23 rebels launched a new offensive, temporarily seizing a strategic city just weeks after signing a peace deal. According to Al Jazeera, the attack on Uvira in South Kivu province has effectively nullified a U.S. and Qatari-brokered agreement, raising fears that the fighting could escalate into a wider regional war.

A Peace Deal's Painful Collapse

Last month, representatives from the M23 and the Congolese government met in Doha, Qatar, to sign a peace framework. This was followed by a high-profile ceremony in Washington, D.C., on M23, where President Donald Trump oversaw the signing of an agreement between DRC President Felix Tshisekedi and Rwandan President Paul Kagame to cease support for armed groups. Yet, barely a week later, M23 militants captured Uvira, a major economic and transport hub.

The Congolese government reported that at least 400 people were killed in the offensive. “It’s clear that they don’t have any will to end this conflict,” Congolese political analyst Hubert Masomera told Al Jazeera, blaming both sides. Following pressure from the United States, M23 later withdrew from Uvira as a “trust-building measure,” but for many exhausted Congolese, the damage was already done. The fleeting hope for peace has given way to a familiar sense of abandonment.

A Déjà Vu of Violence

For conflict monitors, the recent events are an eerie replay of past failures. A similar peace process led by the African Union and Angola in late 2024 collapsed on the eve of a new year. “There’s a sense of déjà vu,” said Nicodemus Minde, an analyst at the Institute for Security Studies (ISS). “It’s symbolic because we were exactly here last year… the prospects for peace are dire.”

By advancing on Uvira, M23 has significantly expanded its control to the doorstep of the mineral-rich Katanga region and positioned Rwandan proxies on Burundi's border, at a time when tensions between the two neighbors are escalating. Having already seized the provincial capitals of Goma and Bukavu, the rebels appear to be carving out a territory wedged between the DRC, Rwanda, Uganda, and Burundi.

A Graveyard of Peace Efforts

Numerous African-led initiatives have failed to bring stability. Peacekeeping forces deployed by the East African Community (EAC) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) were unable to halt the resurgent M23 and ultimately withdrew. The U.S. and Qatar stepped in with a two-pronged approach, negotiating with both the rebels and their alleged state sponsors. However, some experts warned the U.S. deal was compromised from the start, citing a clause that reportedly guarantees American firms access to rare earth minerals in both Rwanda and the DRC.