Myanmar's Military Wins Big, But Nobody's Buying It

88% of lower house seats. 69% of upper chamber positions announced so far. By the numbers, Myanmar's Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) scored a landslide victory in the country's first general election since the 2021 military coup. There's just one problem: almost nobody recognizes it as legitimate.

The three-phase election, which concluded last weekend after starting on December 28, was meant to restore Myanmar's "path to democracy" according to military rulers. Instead, it has highlighted just how far the country has drifted from genuine democratic governance.

A Democracy in Name Only

Myanmar's military junta framed this election as proof of popular support and democratic progress. Military spokesman Zaw Min Tun insisted the polls were "free and fair," with parliament expected to convene in March to elect a president and install a new government by April.

But the democratic veneer quickly crumbles under scrutiny. Myanmar's constitution guarantees the military 25% of parliamentary seats automatically, ensuring continued control regardless of election outcomes. Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy was dissolved along with dozens of other parties. Many opposition groups boycotted entirely.

The voting process itself was marred by violence and intimidation. The UN documented 170 civilian deaths from airstrikes during the election period, with another 400 people arrested. Ethnic minorities like the Muslim-majority Rohingya were systematically excluded, having been stripped of citizenship rights.

"Many people chose either to vote or not to vote purely out of fear," UN human rights chief Volker Turk observed. This hardly sounds like the free expression of democratic will.

International Isolation Deepens

The 11-member ASEAN bloc has refused to endorse Myanmar's electoral process, with the Philippine Foreign Minister stating the organization does not recognize the elections "as of now." Western countries have similarly questioned the vote's credibility.

Even the Trump administration, which has generally muted its criticism of foreign elections, is taking a cautious stance. A State Department spokesperson said the US was "monitoring the situation" and would "assess the military regime's next steps."

This diplomatic cold shoulder carries real consequences. International sanctions remain in place, foreign investment has dried up, and Myanmar finds itself increasingly isolated on the global stage. The UN estimates 3.6 million people have been internally displaced since the coup, with thousands killed in the ongoing civil conflict.

Regional Headaches

Myanmar's crisis poses particular challenges for Southeast Asia. ASEAN's traditional "non-interference" principle is being tested as the humanitarian situation deteriorates. Yet member states remain reluctant to take stronger action, partly due to China's influence in the region.

Beijing maintains a pragmatic approach to Myanmar, viewing it as crucial for Belt and Road Initiative projects. China recently executed 11 of its citizens linked to Myanmar-based scam operations, demonstrating it prioritizes stability over human rights concerns. This creates a template other regional powers might follow.

For businesses and investors, Myanmar represents a cautionary tale about political risk. Companies that once saw the country as an emerging market opportunity now face the reality of operating in a conflict zone with questionable governance.

The Legitimacy Trap

The military's electoral strategy reveals a fundamental misunderstanding of democratic legitimacy. Holding elections doesn't automatically confer legitimacy if the process excludes opposition voices, intimidates voters, and operates under military oversight.

This creates a paradox: the more the junta tries to legitimize its rule through democratic theater, the more it highlights the absence of genuine democracy. International observers see through the facade, leaving Myanmar more isolated than before.

The question isn't just academic—it shapes how the international community responds to contested elections everywhere.