Bitcoin More Attractive Than Gold? JPMorgan's Volatility Paradox

Gold surged 60% in 2025 while bitcoin stumbled into 2026. Yet JPMorgan just argued bitcoin might be "more attractive" than gold long-term. What's behind this counterintuitive take?

The Great Decoupling

For years, bitcoin wore the "digital gold" crown with pride. That relationship has shattered. While gold soared on central bank buying and flight-to-safety demand, bitcoin has posted consecutive monthly declines, underperforming even major risk assets.

Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou and his JPMorgan team noted that "digital assets came under further pressure over the past week as risk assets and in particular tech came under pressure." The selloff wasn't isolated—it spilled into bitcoin and ether ETFs, signaling broad institutional and retail pessimism.

Even stablecoin supply has contracted, another bearish indicator that suggests the crypto winter isn't over yet.

The Volatility Twist

Here's where JPMorgan's analysis gets interesting. Yes, gold has outperformed bitcoin since October. But it's done so with much higher volatility. And that, according to the bank, makes bitcoin "even more attractive compared to gold."

The math is striking: If bitcoin matched gold's recent volatility levels, the cryptocurrency would need to hit around $266,000 to justify the same investment flows going into gold. JPMorgan calls this "an unrealistic target for this year"—but that's not the point.

The point is potential. "This shows the upside potential over the long term once negative sentiment is reversed and once bitcoin is again perceived equally attractive to gold as a potential hedge to a catastrophic scenario," the analysts wrote.

What This Means for Your Portfolio

For crypto investors, this analysis offers both comfort and caution. The comfort: Bitcoin's lower volatility relative to gold suggests it's maturing as an asset class. The caution: That maturation process might involve extended periods of underperformance.

Gold investors, meanwhile, might want to consider whether their safe haven is becoming less safe. Gold's 60% surge came with increased volatility—exactly what many gold buyers were trying to avoid.

Institutional investors face a particularly complex decision. Do they chase gold's momentum despite rising volatility? Or do they bet on bitcoin's longer-term potential as a more stable store of value?

The Bigger Picture: Redefining Safe Havens

This isn't just about two assets—it's about how we define safety in an increasingly uncertain world. Traditional safe havens like government bonds offer negative real returns. Gold is volatile. Cash is being debased by inflation.

Bitcoin's proposition has always been different: a non-correlated asset that doesn't depend on any government or central bank. JPMorgan's analysis suggests this proposition might be gaining credibility, even during a period of poor price performance.

The question isn't whether bitcoin will hit $266,000 this year—it won't. The question is whether investors will eventually recognize bitcoin's unique properties in a world where traditional safe havens are failing.