Japan Hits 40 Million Tourist Milestone as 45% Drop in Chinese Visitors Signals 2026 Slump

40 million visitors wasn't enough to stop the chill. While Japan celebrated a historic milestone in 2025, the party's over for many business owners. The Japanese tourism ministry announced Tuesday that Chinese arrivals plunged 45% in December after Beijing issued travel warnings.

The Fallout of Japan Tourism Record 2025 and Chinese Visitor Drop

It's a stark reversal. For the first time, foreign visitors crossed the 40-million mark last year, but the sudden absence of Chinese big-spenders is rattling the market. According to Nikkei, business at Tokyo bars and restaurants that once thrived on Chinese tour groups has largely dried up. Department store profit forecasts have already been slashed by 24%.

2026 Outlook: First Decline in Years

The outlook for 2026 is looking grim. Analysts expect total foreign visitors to drop by 3%, marking the first post-pandemic decline. The trend isn't isolated to Japan; Thailand also saw a 30% plunge in Chinese arrivals. In Japan, hotel bookings from China have already been cut by half.